ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

another large burst happening on the se ... keeping her alive.. and probably move her more off track.. she a good 30 to 50 off track.

Very little impact on the Mississippi coast (almost none inland), and closest approach to the MS coast won't be until Sunday morning.

[wxman57]

Is it correct the center is far away from the heavy rains? That's what I heard today, if so, which area then will be impacted with the heaviest of rain?

You probably won't get any rain from Karen in New Orleans.

[Aric Dunn]

another large burst happening on the se ... keeping her alive.. and probably move her more off track.. she a good 30 to 50 off track.

Very little impact on the Mississippi coast (almost none inland), and closest approach to the MS coast won't be until Sunday morning.

agreed.

[wxman57]

Look for an NHC track shift next hour. Earlier NE-ENE turn and center possibly missing the mouth of the Mississippi to the south. Landfall farther east, closer to Panama City, FL. Will be just about merging with the cold front at that time.

[GCANE]

Impressive eddy in the GOM loop current

http://plus.google.com/photos/115333506137843021021/albums/5900864447687057585/5900864452115785234?pid=5900864452115785234&oid=115333506137843021021

[creole_lady]

Is it correct the center is far away from the heavy rains? That's what I heard today, if so, which area then will be impacted with the heaviest of rain?

You probably won't get any rain from Karen in New Orleans.

We are getting rains now in New Orleans area

[psyclone]

Given that the GFS, ECMWF and the UKMET are now centered around the central Panhandle and on the far right edge of the NHC cone, I think the NHC needs to make a big east shift at the 5pm advisory. That gives this evening for people to prepare around Panama City. If the NHC waits until 11pm then people won't be able to prepare until the next morning. Since were under 3 days for impact people need as much advance warning as possible.

This is reminding me of Debby.

this may very well wind up as a largely non event for whoever gets her. you never know. we just had 6-8" in my neighborhood last week over 2 days with some areas near 12". that's probably more than Karen will unload on anyone. and the winds at this point would be a non event on land and I expect that will remain the case...as long as the shear genie keeps working her magic.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeGaBob]

The center of the storm appears to be clouding up on satellite.... but it is still west of the convection. Is the LLC weakening now ?

I haven't posted on here in a while but i'll try to get back to posting more often.

[bayoubebe]

Is it correct the center is far away from the heavy rains? That's what I heard today, if so, which area then will be impacted with the heaviest of rain?

You probably won't get any rain from Karen in New Orleans.

We are getting rains now in New Orleans area

What part of New Orleans?

[stephen23]

Mr. Dunn is right. Latest recon showed the center to actually be SW of original point. Is Doing a cyclonic loop. Could this mean a new eastward direction? Seems to be having problems getting any farther North at the time

[wxman57]

We are getting rains now in New Orleans area

Just typical afternoon showers. Nothing to be concerned about today or tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is picking up a 4000 CAPE infeed south of the LLC.

[GCANE]

A number of overshooting tops firing off now really close to the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

[robbielyn]

you can tell its making the turn because the sw winds that were sheering it is now in line with the storm

[robbielyn]

A number of overshooting tops firing off now really close to the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

looks like llc now opened up on south side in that last frame

[Evil Jeremy]

A number of overshooting tops firing off now really close to the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

looks like llc now opened up on south side in that last frame

To me it looks like Karen has decoupled. Either way, she is unimpressive right now.

[GCANE]

A number of overshooting tops firing off now really close to the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

looks like llc now opened up on south side in that last frame

Definitely some small rapid-fire hot towers.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif

If WV starts filling in on the west side of the LLC - its game on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif

Still has a good 30 hrs over water.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT12 KWBC 042016
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013
A. 04/19:57:17Z
B. 25 deg 47 min N
090 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 3137 m
D. 46 kt
E. 357 deg 4 nm
F. 105 deg 36 kt
G. 357 deg 23 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 14 C / 2438 m
J. 17 C / 2436 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0912A KAREN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 36 KT 357/23 19:50:25Z
MSLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT
CENTER SONDE SPLASHED WITH 1006 MB WINDS 080/50 KTS
SURFACE CENTER REFORMING IN CONVECTION SSE OF CTR
CENTER SST 28.7C FROM AXBT

[lester]

SURFACE CENTER REFORMING IN CONVECTION SSE OF CTR

[hurricanes1234]

Karen has fallen apart fast. No surprise given the fact that it's 2013 after all.