ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Red "VM" for vorticity maximum...blue "M" for mid-level circulation...yellow "ML" for monsoonal low.

This is where we'll begin to see if the ECMWF or GFS will be right. The ECMWF keeps the mid-level circulation the dominant feature and subsequently sends it into the Yucatan and across the Bay of Campeche with little consequence. The GFS, CMC, and FIM models, however, show the vorticity maximum becoming the dominant feature and intensifying, hitting the Yucatan Peninsula and being pulled north/north-northeast accordingly.

I'd side with the GFS, CMC, and FIM models for now. That's just me though.

[cycloneye]

00z Surface Analysis by TAFB.

[JonathanBelles]

viewtopic.php?p=2330277#p2330277 <---my thoughts

[Rgv20]

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1034 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST THIS WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED
BY LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 21N ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MERGE WITH A TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS FRI
THROUGH SUN.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

[tropicwatch]

Kind of sticking there neck out a little with that forecast.

[weatherSnoop]

I am watching 15.5N 81.2 west. Not at the surface yet. Call it an eye for things, though I have very bad vision.

This is not a forecast and I am not trained in any way. Please refer to NHC for accurate analysis and potential threats.

[ROCK]

00z Surface Analysis by TAFB.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/2cf44r8.jpg

well the TAFB changed there map it seems.....

[galaxy401]

Convection flaring up again in a more concentrated area.

[lester]

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Strong concentrated area of convection:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Anticyclone positioned over that area with low wind shear and decreasing:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Quickly improving conditions and 92L is responding well to them.

[GCANE]

Last OSCAT, about 4 hrs ago, showing 40 knot surface winds in the strong convection.

However, its all east winds.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... 4_0000.jpg


Flare now firing up just to the northeast of the LLC.

Cold cloud tops; however, rain rate is light.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 140045.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... bean.0.jpg


Not benefiting from DMAX at the moment, looks like its on a slow brew.

[GCANE]

Very light NW winds at Utila, Honduras

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... d.type=00Q

[GCANE]

Bluefields, Nicaragua

Winds out of NW, 5 mph

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... -83.769997

[GCANE]

Winds shifting from out of east to out of south at Buoy 42057

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=EST

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml

[tropicwatch]

Noticed pressure down at that buoy to 1010mb.

[NDG]

I hope Rock does not spill his coffee when he sees that his lovely ECMWF has let him down, for the who knows how many times this hurricane season so far, lol.
Like I said yesterday, it never fails, the euro has been horrible this year when going against the GFS, especially in the GOM.

[KatDaddy]

Continuing to slow organize this morning. Awaiting additional model runs later this morning. Houston-Galveston AFD has nothing to say however the Corpus Christi AFD does make a mention:

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BASED OFF FUTURE EVOLUTION OF
TROPICAL PARAMETERS.

[Javlin]

Kinda tuff to tell but looks like alittle rotation @18N 81W by shortwave IR

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Dean4Storms]

Sure looks like we could get an LLC down under that deep convection today if it continues. Something developing that far east of the Yucatan would change everything in regards to any westward motion.

[NDG]

Saved radar loop from the Cayman Island, I know is at long range but you can clearly see the vorticity SW of the Islands.