ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Eventual Cape Verde majors since 2003 and their first 5-day forecast peak (actual 120 hours after first advisory):

Fabian - 50 kt (actual 125 kt)
Isabel - 65 kt (actual 130 kt)

Frances - 70 kt (actual 110 kt)
Ivan - 70 kt (actual 105 kt)
Karl - 95 kt (actual 105 kt)

Helene - 85 kt (actual 90 kt)

Dean - 90 kt (actual 130 kt)

Bertha - 55 kt (actual 105 kt)
Ike - 70 kt (actual 95 kt)

Bill - 90 kt (actual 105 kt)
Fred - 45 kt (actual 25 kt remnant low; went up and down fast)

Danielle - 95 kt (actual 95 kt)
Earl - 85 kt (actual 105 kt)
Igor - 85 kt (actual 130 kt)
Julia - 65 kt (actual 75 kt; peaked quite quickly)

Katia - 85 kt (actual 65 kt; struggled early on)

[Hurricane Alexis]

93L was only first mentioned in the 5-day TWO yesterday at 2:00 PM and was given a 20% chance of developing. Just goes to show how quickly things can change in the tropics, and how difficult it can be to forecast development even with all the tools available to the professionals over at the NHC.

IMO the chances of TD5 developing were already high in it's first TWO. NHC probably put low chances for precaution just in case it didn't develop.

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
200 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 24.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF FOGO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 150845
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT PASSES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 25.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Gustywind]

SSD numbers.


15/0545 UTC 14.2N 24.6W T1.5/1.5 05L
14/2345 UTC 13.8N 22.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1745 UTC 13.1N 21.8W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1200 UTC 12.5N 20.8W TOO WEAK 93L

[South Texas Storms]

We now have TS Erin!

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151138
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 25.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Season now at 5/0/0. Will Erin be the first hurricane of the season? I don't think so but mother nature has the last word so let's watch Erin down the road.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye could we see the latest pic/ loop of now... TS Erin.

[Gustywind]

8 AM discussion.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 26.5W OR ABOUT 55 NM
WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Central
Tropical Storm Erin in the Eastern Atlantic

weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... n-20130814

After first forming as a tropical depression late Wednesday night, Tropical Storm Erin has become the Atlantic season's fifth named storm.

Erin is forecast to move off to the west-northwest into the upcoming weekend.

Initially, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to the southern Cape Verde Islands through Thursday. After that time, it will move towards the central Atlantic Ocean with no impacts to land into early next week. It's too early to determine whether this system will have any impacts on land farther to the west, including the eastern Caribbean Islands.
Stay tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com for updates.

[cycloneye]

:) Cycloneye could we see the latest pic/ loop of now... TS Erin.

Saved loop.

[Gustywind]

:) Cycloneye could we see the latest pic/ loop of now... TS Erin.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/2gt3k3a.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Thanks. TS Erin seems to exhibit a very healthy appareance. Looks like banding are also trying to form in the south part.

[tolakram]

Closeup but blurry loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 150730.GIF

from this page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL052013

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for... TS Erin

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/1145 UTC 14.5N 25.8W T2.0/2.0 ERIN
15/0545 UTC 14.2N 24.6W T1.5/1.5 05L
14/2345 UTC 13.8N 22.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1745 UTC 13.1N 21.8W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1200 UTC 12.5N 20.8W TOO WEAK 93L

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 144N, 257W, 35, 1006, TS

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Atlantic

August 15, 2013; 8:00 AM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

Our fifth tropical storms of the season has formed southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Heavy rain is expected.

[adam0983]

What are the chances that Tropical Storm Erin is a threat to the United States or any Island?

[mascpa]

Much too early to tell.

[Gustywind]

Can someone could post the shear map and the SAL map to have a better idea of what TS shoud have to deal with?