CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#121 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:12 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:[img]himg[/img]


I'm starting to think this might become a hurricane.

I've been looking at microwave imagery for the past 2 hours from UW-CIMSS... It's trying to develop an Eyewall or a core... Which it will need for it to even be considered a Hurricane.
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#122 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:57 pm

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#123 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 26, 2013 6:57 pm

Based on satellite, Flossie may have peaked. Might be too soon to tell though.
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Re: EPAC: FLOSSIE - Tropical Storm

#124 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:08 pm

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Re:

#125 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:14 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Based on satellite, Flossie may have peaked. Might be too soon to tell though.

It's making it through D-Min just fine.
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Re: Re:

#126 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Based on satellite, Flossie may have peaked. Might be too soon to tell though.

It's making it through D-Min just fine.


D-Min is only a real factor for weak tropical storm and depressions AFAIK.
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Re: Re:

#127 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:26 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Based on satellite, Flossie may have peaked. Might be too soon to tell though.

It's making it through D-Min just fine.


D-Min is only a real factor for weak tropical storm and depressions AFAIK.

Oh really? I stand corrected if so.
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Re: EPAC: FLOSSIE - Tropical Storm

#128 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:00 pm

00z Best Track remains at 50kts.

EP, 06, 2013072700, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1349W, 50, 999, TS,
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#129 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:33 pm

Image

Another missed SSMI pass. Hey at least it got more of the center this time!
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Re: EPAC: FLOSSIE - Tropical Storm

#130 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track remains at 50kts.

EP, 06, 2013072700, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1349W, 50, 999, TS,


Not shocked at all. However, I was slightly hoping they'd raise it to 55.
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#131 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:40 pm

Image
Looks healthy. Thicker convection around the center.
Best looking 50kt storm I've seen in a while.

Here's what's going on inside.
Image
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#132 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:57 pm

Image

Looks like a Hurricane.
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Re:

#133 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Image

Looks like a Hurricane.


More like 55 or 60 knts to me. Reminds me a bit of Felicia 09 during this stage.
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Re: EPAC: FLOSSIE - Tropical Storm

#134 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AND BROKEN CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS OVER 26C WATERS AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
EVEN COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE LESS
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE FLOSSIE TO HOLD STEADY IN
STRENGTH OR WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE
ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE LATER IN THE FORECAST...
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

FLOSSIE REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
BRINGS THE WEAKENING STORM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.0N 135.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.6N 138.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 19.5N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 19.8N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 20.0N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#135 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:51 pm

Image Image

Eyewall maybe forming?
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#136 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:03 pm

EPAC is such a good basin. When it goes, it puts up quality doesn't matter the season lately. None of that Atlantic half-baked storms that struggle.

Image
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#137 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:15 pm

very surprised there is no recon planned for this. Hawaii is supposed to get the same coverage as is the mainland
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Re:

#138 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:34 pm

Alyono wrote:very surprised there is no recon planned for this. Hawaii is supposed to get the same coverage as is the mainland

They're sending out 3 planes, tomorrow or Sunday.
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Re: EPAC: FLOSSIE - Tropical Storm

#139 Postby hawaiigirl » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:53 pm

what can Hawaii expect? I'm hoping for some thunderstorms, and my trampoline flying away!?? :lol:
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Re: EPAC: FLOSSIE - Tropical Storm

#140 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 26, 2013 11:02 pm

hawaiigirl wrote:what can Hawaii expect? I'm hoping for some thunderstorms, and my trampoline flying away!?? :lol:


Difficult to predict at this time, could fizzle or strengthen.
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