Alyono wrote:SHIPS is indicating that there will be moderate shear affecting this throughout the next 72 hours.
I'm curious if the shear that SHIPS was forecasting was more based on the farther south latitude of the original center which of course was also cruising westward at a pretty good clip. If that motion and speed were maintained, then perhaps the perceived shear would have been the result of the LLC being located SW of the upper high and a more southerly shear might have been the result. As it stands, the satelite presentation certainly could make an argument that a center may be reforming. Any falling pressures caused by the intense convection might be a cause for a slower motion and furthermore any relocation further north would have any new LLC that much more insulated to shear due to its orientation to the upper high. Finally, if a LLC were to form further north and under the decent sized mid level envelope, then it would be interesting to take another look this evening at what the earlier BAMD model was indicating for general motion (of course any reformation would certainly cause an updated initiation of 93L as well).
One thing for sure, 93L is looking pretty healthy at the moment. Its interesting how none of the models from 0Z yesterday to this evening seemed to particularly pick up on this system organizing to the level that it would appear to be at the moment.
looks offshore and more north east....might need to uptick the BAMMS some to the north but not by much....for fun the NAM buries it in the BOC.....
