ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[robbielyn]

I believe it has turned just a tad bit northward in motion which has allowed convection to fire around the center, not feeling the effects of the shear as much with the more NW movement.

It is beyond my capability to look at this storm on IR at this moment to determine exactly what direction it is moving.... you can't even see any part of the center as it is covered by clouds... no RECON, no radar, no center... how is this done - I would love to know.. thanks

look at this frank: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html
the center is actually just east of the next forecast plot the little bit of blob is the overshooting tower the llc is underneath that convection. If you look at it the whole picture, it wont and cant go west of that forecast plot and it actually missed the plot east of it not by much but still east so it took a more northerly component a nnw trajectory at the moment.

[robbielyn]

I believe it has turned just a tad bit northward in motion which has allowed convection to fire around the center, not feeling the effects of the shear as much with the more NW movement.

It is beyond my capability to look at this storm on IR at this moment to determine exactly what direction it is moving.... you can't even see any part of the center as it is covered by clouds... no RECON, no radar, no center... how is this done - I would love to know.. thanks

I would say it is close to 89W 24N. JMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

more like 88.5 west has wrapping convection

[hurricanes1234]

00z Best Track.

AL, 12, 2013100400, , BEST, 0, 238N, 888W, 55, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Where's the key to decipher this type of message?

Thanks for the good info.

Here's how to decipher it.

I don't use anything except for the intensity, but will show you what I know from it.

AL, 12, 2013100400 - Basin: AL (Atlantic) Number: 12 (Twelfth depression) Date: 2013100400 (Year 2013, 10th month, 4th of the month, 0:00 UTC.

55, 999, TS
55 - Represents the wind speed of the storm, in knots.
999 - Represents the minimum pressure of the storm, in millibars.
TS - Represents the status of the system. WV = Wave, DB = Disturbance, LO = Low, TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane

Hope this helps.

[bella_may]

Mike's Weather Page

"Karen is getting more convection blowing up near her center after losing some earlier today. Pressure appears to be hanging around 999mb. New update from the NHC and track comes out at 11pm. Appears to be tracking a little West of the NHC track so we may have a slight shift... we will see. Overall spaghetti models still widespread on final landfall. Rainfall predictions are intense and climbing each run!"

[ozonepete]

I believe it has turned just a tad bit northward in motion which has allowed convection to fire around the center, not feeling the effects of the shear as much with the more NW movement.

It is beyond my capability to look at this storm on IR at this moment to determine exactly what direction it is moving.... you can't even see any part of the center as it is covered by clouds... no RECON, no radar, no center... how is this done - I would love to know.. thanks

frank, if you don't use the RGB you really should. It's the only one I use at night and actually I prefer it 24 hours a day, often even over the visible during the day.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-rgb-long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[Lane]

It looks like it's flattening on the west side, is it hitting a boundary of some sort?

[Frank P]

I believe it has turned just a tad bit northward in motion which has allowed convection to fire around the center, not feeling the effects of the shear as much with the more NW movement.

It is beyond my capability to look at this storm on IR at this moment to determine exactly what direction it is moving.... you can't even see any part of the center as it is covered by clouds... no RECON, no radar, no center... how is this done - I would love to know.. thanks

frank, if you don't use the RGB you really should. It's the only one I use at night and actually I prefer it 24 hours a day, often even over the visible during the day.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-rgb-long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

Thanks ozonepete will do..

[gatorcane]

It looks like it's flattening on the west side, is it hitting a boundary of some sort?

That looks like some shear to me. Conditions not as good as they were in the NW Caribbean that is for sure.

[robbielyn]

sw shear coming from the pacific side south of the bay of campeche

[Rail Dawg]

00z Best Track.

AL, 12, 2013100400, , BEST, 0, 238N, 888W, 55, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Where's the key to decipher this type of message?

Thanks for the good info.

Here's how to decipher it.

I don't use anything except for the intensity, but will show you what I know from it.

AL, 12, 2013100400 - Basin: AL (Atlantic) Number: 12 (Twelfth depression) Date: 2013100400 (Year 2013, 10th month, 4th of the month, 0:00 UTC.

55, 999, TS
55 - Represents the wind speed of the storm, in knots.
999 - Represents the minimum pressure of the storm, in millibars.
TS - Represents the status of the system. WV = Wave, DB = Disturbance, LO = Low, TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane

Hope this helps.

It sure does. Thanks!

[HurriGuy]

The center is definitely west of where it was originally anticipated. I can guarantee this because the cone has shifted west the last couple of updates and I remember specifically some people saying it would not get pass 90W. Heck even NHC didn't have it going pass 90W until maybe tomorrow evening. At the moment Karen looks to be at 90W by 4AM if it continues its .4 degrees west per update trend like it has throughout the day.

[hurricanes1234]

Anytime. I enjoy helping people whenever I have the time and opportunity.

Karen seems to be getting better organised. Maybe 70 mph by 11PM? This really is just an opinion.

[HurriGuy]

Honestly..IMO.....on RGB it looks like it is going NW at the moment zoomed in closer.

[ozonepete]

It looks like it's flattening on the west side, is it hitting a boundary of some sort?

That looks like some shear to me. Conditions not as good as they were in the NW Caribbean that is for sure.

Yup. That's shear.

[MidnightRain]

Won't be long until the LLC is completely exposed again, I think Karen's window of opportunity to strengthen is closing fast.

[Lane]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT
LOCATION...24.2N 89.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[cycloneye]

10 PM CDT Advisory forecast intensity doesn't go up to Hurricane strengh

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Diurnal maximum should be interesting. Convection is already expanding over the low-level center.

[hurricanes1234]

Diurnal maximum should be interesting. Convection is already expanding over the low-level center.

Shear will increase soon.

[N2FSU]

So slightly more northerly motion (335 vs 330) and slower.