ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[N2FSU]

Has the front sped up, or are there any updates on the timing of it's arrival to the Gulf coast? Looking at the WV loop, it sure looks like the leading edge of strong SW flow is about to reach the Louisiana coast. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me.

[psyclone]

Will the angle of it "raking" GI and then turning affect the surge we would see?[/quote]
the key is whether or not the center passes west or east of a given locale. if the center remains east, the winds will be weaker and offshore making high water a non issue.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[robbielyn]

Has the front sped up, or are there any updates on the timing of it's arrival to the Gulf coast? Looking at the WV loop, it sure looks like the leading edge of strong SW flow is about to reach the Louisiana coast. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me.

nope i saw it too glad you mentioned it. but what im looking at is still fast moving front just west of texas bearing down that is why i put up the wide view

[monicaei]

Come on t-man, you know plaquemines parish ain't land. Lol
Tim

Lol, now you know GI is in Jefferson Parish. High ground!

[LaBreeze]

No problem, brunota - many people mistakenly think that Grand Isle is on the delta in Plaquemines Parish, when it is actually just west of there on the coast.

[Rail Dawg]

Where do you find those microwave images that "play"? I'm sorry if this question isn't worded properly, I have no idea what the technical term for that is...

I like those too.

[T-man]

Come on t-man, you know plaquemines parish ain't land. Lol
Tim

Alright, you got me there,

[stormkite]

This loop is as good as it gets you can take it to the bank.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[brunota2003]

Will the angle of it "raking" GI and then turning affect the surge we would see?
the key is whether or not the center passes west or east of a given locale. if the center remains east, the winds will be weaker and offshore making high water a non issue.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

One thing to keep in mind, that portion of LA has a corner effect. The counter-clockwise circulation will pile water up into the corner, with no where for it to go but upstream.

[LSU2001]

Yep, I do
Seriously, I see something less than Isaac as far as impact. It all spends on when Karen take the hard right.

Just my armature opinion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Becoming better organized.

[N2FSU]

Has the front sped up, or are there any updates on the timing of it's arrival to the Gulf coast? Looking at the WV loop, it sure looks like the leading edge of strong SW flow is about to reach the Louisiana coast. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me.

nope i saw it too glad you mentioned it. but what im looking at is still fast moving front just west of texas bearing down that is why i put up the wide view

Yeh, it sure seems to be racing to the Gulf (the front). As always, where Karen begins the turn will all come down to timing.

[hurricanes1234]

Becoming better organized.

http://i.imgur.com/BtyXEMe.gif

Looks much better than today, that's for sure.

[Rail Dawg]

00z Best Track.

AL, 12, 2013100400, , BEST, 0, 238N, 888W, 55, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Where's the key to decipher this type of message?

Thanks for the good info.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe it has turned just a tad bit northward in motion which has allowed convection to fire around the center, not feeling the effects of the shear as much with the more NW movement from earlier.

[gatorcane]

00z Best Track.

AL, 12, 2013100400, , BEST, 0, 238N, 888W, 55, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Where's the key to decipher this type of message?

Thanks for the good info.

I use the RAL site which has the information you need in an easily readable format plus gives what direction the system is moving and the speed. You can "reverse engineer" the BEST TRACK message by looking at the numbers below and matching them to see what field they are referring to

At 0000 UTC, 04 October 2013, TROPICAL STORM KAREN (AL12) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 23.8°N and 88.8°W. The current intensity was 55 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 325 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb.

RAL link for Karen:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al122013/

[Frank P]

I believe it has turned just a tad bit northward in motion which has allowed convection to fire around the center, not feeling the effects of the shear as much with the more NW movement.

It is beyond my capability to look at this storm on IR at this moment to determine exactly what direction it is moving.... you can't even see any part of the center as it is covered by clouds... no RECON, no radar, no center... how is this done - I would love to know.. thanks

[Chris_in_Tampa]

00z Best Track.

AL, 12, 2013100400, , BEST, 0, 238N, 888W, 55, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Where's the key to decipher this type of message?

Thanks for the good info.

Here is how to do it manually:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/doc ... rdeck.html
From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/README

My site has it done automatically too:
Current: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... 3&storm=12
Entire previous track: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... =besttrack

Edit: I must note that this is the raw best track data, not advisory data. For the latest data from the NHC, visit their website for advisory data. The above is best track data, subject to error.

[bella_may]

I believe it has turned just a tad bit northward in motion which has allowed convection to fire around the center, not feeling the effects of the shear as much with the more NW movement.

It is beyond my capability to look at this storm on IR at this moment to determine exactly what direction it is moving.... you can't even see any part of the center as it is covered by clouds... no RECON, no radar, no center... how is this done - I would love to know.. thanks

I saw where a pro met on twitter tweeted that it is actually west of the forecasted track at the moment. No clue where you are getting your info.

[tropicwatch]

I believe it has turned just a tad bit northward in motion which has allowed convection to fire around the center, not feeling the effects of the shear as much with the more NW movement.

It is beyond my capability to look at this storm on IR at this moment to determine exactly what direction it is moving.... you can't even see any part of the center as it is covered by clouds... no RECON, no radar, no center... how is this done - I would love to know.. thanks

I would say it is close to 89W 24N. JMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products