WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[stormkite]

2013OCT18 013000 6.1 944.4 117.4 6.1 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 9.76 -72.92 EYE 18

It's not weaker around the eyewall its further intensifying.

[cycloneye]

The 03:00z forecast track. Peak intensity remains at 135kts.

[hurricanes1234]

WOW.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CAT 5 anyone?

[hurricanes1234]

CAT 5 anyone?

Maybe soon.

[euro6208]

Category 4...

WDPN33 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM WEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES AN INTENSE SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
DEFINED 15 NM EYE AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS.
A 172251Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A
WELL DEFINED EYEWALL AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS IN THE
OUTER PERIPHERIES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE WELL
DEFINED EYE IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY FRANCISCO IS BEGINNING TO TRACK NORTHWEST
ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
WOBBLE REMAINS IN THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE SYSEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH OF GUAM. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND AMPLE
OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TY 26W TO INTENSIFY TO A MAXIMUM OF 135 KNOTS BY
TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, COOLING SEA
SURFACE WILL START A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LEADING TO NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR, ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. FURTHER
DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AND AN INCREASE IN VWS WILL CONTINUE THE
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DIVERGE WIDELY AFTER TAU 72, DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENT
OF THE STR THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Latest...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CAT 5 anyone?

Maybe soon.

This has the looks of a Cat 5 already! And for JMA, they're too conservative? 85 kts? I'd say 100 for 10-min.

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm warning for Guam has been canceled...

600
WTPQ33 PGUM 180306
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262013
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 18 2013

...TYPHOON FRANCISCO BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AGAIN...
...TYPHOON FRANCISCO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUAM AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 142.1E

ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 210 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 245 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON FRANCISCO (26W) WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.1 EAST.

SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE THAT TYPHOON FRANCISCO IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 MPH. FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH. TYPHOON FRANCISCO
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH SATURDAY. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.

$$

W.AYDLETT

[stormkite]

Official forecast's are now suggesting FRANCISCO will go C5

[Grifforzer]

CAT 5 anyone?

Maybe soon.

This has the looks of a Cat 5 already! And for JMA, they're too conservative? 85 kts? I'd say 100 for 10-min.

A Category Five-like typhoon is around 105-110 knots to the Japan Meteorological Agency (T7.0). Based on past cyclone seasons.

85 knots via JMA (Dvorak T5.5)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Official forecast's are now suggesting FRANCISCO will go C5

Link please.

Actually, JTWC says it will just stay shy of Cat 5 (250 km/hr) but we're not yet sure.

[jaguarjace]

Floater is now up

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wonder how's the ACE going on. Probably this will add 20 units.

[stormkite]

Official forecast's are now suggesting FRANCISCO will go C5

Link please.

Actually, JTWC says it will just stay shy of Cat 5 (250 km/hr) but we're not yet sure.

Jtwc is forecasting a peek of 135 to 165 knots. Check 19/12Z ref on the model =cat5 winds.

Dont shoot the messenger.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Official forecast's are now suggesting FRANCISCO will go C5

Link please.

Actually, JTWC says it will just stay shy of Cat 5 (250 km/hr) but we're not yet sure.

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/6756/qym.gif


Jtwc is forecasting a peek of 135 to 165 knots. Check 19/12Z ref on the model =cat5 winds.

Dont shoot the messenger.

135 - Maximum sustained wind (peak)
165 - Wind gusts

[stormkite]

Official forecast's are now suggesting FRANCISCO will go C5

Link please.

Actually, JTWC says it will just stay shy of Cat 5 (250 km/hr) but we're not yet sure.

Are you suggesting 165 knot gusts are not C5. Also you quote we're not sure. Who is we're .? 165 knots is just shy of 190 mph or 313 kms/hr.

[euro6208]

26W FRANCISCO 131018 0600 14.2N 142.0E WPAC 125 929

francisco remains a strong category 4 typhoon...

125 knots Sustained 1 min winds
929mb pressure...

[summersquall]

[stormkite]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2013 Time : 063000 UTC
Lat : 14:24:23 N Lon : 142:01:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 939.3mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +9.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.2 degrees