ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ROCK]

If that's the center it's going in low into Belize and should have to organize all over after Yucatan. (If it tracks west like it's doing)

thats pretty much what the NAM,EURO,UKMET, the 0z BAMM suite are showing....

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-avn-long.html

looks totally organized tonight. ...that anticyclone is sitting right on top of the MLC and likely moving with it


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Did you notice the 3 hr step direction there Rock? It's moved northward more since this.

[hurricanehunter69]

A good friend of mine is having an outdoor wedding this saturday.... right off the beach. So, as much as I hate to say it. You can put me down with the NGOM solution (camp). Based on the fact that there is a clear weakness in the central gulf, and the system appears to be developing well. Although I'm thinking it won't really matter where the llc initializes, I'll still go with the llc initializing farther north in the NW caribbean.

[Dean4Storms]

If that MLC keeps moving WNW with the Anticyclone moving north that MLC is finished IMO.

[ozonepete]

Well now that the floater's up I can get a better fix. The current COC surely looks to be where I circled it. There still is a lot of jockeying underneath the whole system for which area will take over, and the point that the southern low could collapse over land and the COC develop further north over the northern Yucatan still must be considered, but if this COC holds and an LLC gets established down there, it would surely favor a more southern track. Just sayin' what I see.

[Dean4Storms]

Well now that the floater's up I can get a better fix. The current COC surely looks to be where I circled it. There still is a lot of jockeying underneath the whole system for which area will take over, and the point that the southern low could collapse over land and the COC develop further north over the northern Yucatan still must be considered, but if this COC holds and an LLC gets established down there, it would surely favor a more southern track. Just sayin' what I see.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2013-08-140115anno_zpsd63ec53e.jpg

Just don't see an LLC getting established down there with the Anticyclone moving north, see Rocks link and 3hr step.

[ROCK]

yeah Dean those maps are not always right on...

But if you want to hang your cowbot hat on the northern route thats cool....you are just going against the HPC in coordination with the NHC and about 2 NWS offices that I know of....good luck!!!

[ROCK]

OZ thats where I have it and been watching it all day....we shall see...HPC discussion was very interesting...

[ronjon]

Yeah Rock but the TAFB 72 hour forecast from the NHC goes with the northern solution. In fact, the GFS shows the greatest vorticity off the NIC coast but moves it inland in 18 hrs.

[ronjon]

Of course that circled area is a little further north than what the GFS shows but it's also pretty devoid of convection.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm at a loss why you think the southern part soon to be inland will be the show when well north we have deepening convection and also vorticity? If there was no convection firing to the north tonight I would agree with the southern system being the main player here, but that is not what I'm seeing.

[Steve]

Haven't watched the video yet, but i could definitely see split energy. You would usually expect low pressure anyway running up and out front of a trough that set up along or just off the Gulf Coast whether it was a winter, spring, subtropical or tropical Low. And the energy out front the trough is juiced. This is like the 4th storm today in Nola. So theres no reason a piece of 92l or its energy shouldn't head for the panhandle. Plus it's a split pattern anyway. The upper low that is preceding the pattern reversal over top of 92l and the western caribbean split off from a TUTT the other day. It would make sense for both model camps if another piece, likely the wave axis, continued on into the sw gulf or BOC whether or not it ever becomes much. Also, I still expect energy to be there based on utor's track. That WPAC ridging has been solid. And if it isn't telegraphing 92l, then it says there will be strong ridging into the SE US in a few days.

This post is NOT official information.

[Dean4Storms]

I guess it is not out of the question either that we have a split here with the southern circulation heading more westward toward the BOC while the northern part develops as they separate in miles with it moving more NW. I don't know, think we get more answers tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

Well now that the floater's up I can get a better fix. The current COC surely looks to be where I circled it. There still is a lot of jockeying underneath the whole system for which area will take over, and the point that the southern low could collapse over land and the COC develop further north over the northern Yucatan still must be considered, but if this COC holds and an LLC gets established down there, it would surely favor a more southern track. Just sayin' what I see.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2013-08-140115anno_zpsd63ec53e.jpg

Just don't see an LLC getting established down there with the Anticyclone moving north, see Rocks link and 3hr step.

Ok, two points now. Remember that the anticyclone doesn't necessarily drive where the low develops. It's much more important where a good mid to low level circulation (and pressure drop) gets established AND convection builds over it. The increased convection around a good mid to low level circulation is what eventually helps establish an anti-cyclone over it. Anti-cyclones moving in over a disturbed area or weak low pressure don't cause a low to develop under them. But the other point is that even if the low is where I circled it and this basically maintains itself, it could still move much more to the NNW rather than west or northwest anyway - the models have so far had this developing center jumping all over the place as it develops. So I shouldn't have really said the current COC position "surely" favors a more southern track. It makes it more likely, but some of the model runs for the last few days had the low where I circled it and still jumped it north and then up to the central GOM coast anyway.

[ROCK]

I am at a loss......well of convection.. ..doesnt look to organized attm...just sayin..

[Dean4Storms]

Well now that the floater's up I can get a better fix. The current COC surely looks to be where I circled it. There still is a lot of jockeying underneath the whole system for which area will take over, and the point that the southern low could collapse over land and the COC develop further north over the northern Yucatan still must be considered, but if this COC holds and an LLC gets established down there, it would surely favor a more southern track. Just sayin' what I see.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2013-08-140115anno_zpsd63ec53e.jpg

Just don't see an LLC getting established down there with the Anticyclone moving north, see Rocks link and 3hr step.

Ok, two points now. Remember that the anticyclone doesn't necessarily drive where the low develops. It's much more important where a good mid to low level circulation (and pressure drop) gets established AND convection builds over it. The increased convection around a good mid to low level circulation is what eventually helps establish an anti-cyclone over it. Anti-cyclones moving in over a disturbed area or weak low pressure don't cause a low to develop under them. But the other point is that even if the low is where I circled it and this basically maintains itself, it could still move much more to the NNW rather than west or northwest anyway - the models have so far had this developing center jumping all over the place as it develops. So I shouldn't have really said the current COC position "surely" favors a more southern track. It makes it more likely, but some of the model runs for the last few days had the low where I circled it and still jumped it north and then up to the central GOM coast anyway.

Good points!

[ozonepete]

Thanks, Dean. And as you said we need to wait and watch. It's still way too early.

[Dean4Storms]

Actually when you follow the GFS it doesn't really even close off a low until it gets north of the Yucatan in the southern Gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

TWC thinks 92L is more likely to get pulled towards the Northern Gulf Coast by the trough.

[Bailey1777]

rock what was the hpc disscussion