CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[TheStormExpert]

Reminding me more of Flossie from 2007, both threatened Hawaii only 2007's Flossie became a major Cat.4 hurricane.

[ninel conde]

its really impressive because there is no el nino. they normally die long before hawaii unless an el nino is raging.

[senorpepr]

The latest video update on Tropical Storm Flossie and other global cyclones threats. Pretty simple forecast in the short-term, but how much will it weaken before affecting Hawaii? That will be our forecast challenge with this storm.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SghNDcstMEU[/youtube]

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH FLOSSIE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW SOME INNER CORE
FEATURES TRYING TO FORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS 6 HOURS
AGO...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 45 KT. FLOSSIE STILL HAS
SOME CHANCE TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO AS FLOSSIE MOVES FARTHER INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

ASCAT AND TRMM DATA SHOW THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.
FLOSSIE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.5N 138.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.3N 141.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 19.5N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 20.5N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 132.3W
ABOUT 1530 MI...2465 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1520 MI...2445 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR FLOSSIE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks for me it only has a few hours of 25C water (sounds familiar to Dorian).

[Kingarabian]

[img]pic[/img]

Looks for me it only has a few hours of 25C water (sounds familiar to Dorian).

But then you have the dry air and the great Hawaiian Shear. Don't forget if this makes land fall on the Big Island of Hawaii it could be toast. The volcanoes of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa are nothing to sneeze about. Extremely high altitude.

[Kingarabian]

EP, 06, 2013072618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1333W, 50, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FLOSSIE, D,

Senorpepr, that was an amazing video and analysis. Learned a lot! Thanks for taking your time to put together that video.

[Kingarabian]

Too bad the SSMIS pass missed completely. -.-

[Yellow Evan]

[img]pic[/img]

Looks for me it only has a few hours of 25C water (sounds familiar to Dorian).

But then you have the dry air and the great Hawaiian Shear. Don't forget if this makes land fall on the Big Island of Hawaii it could be toast. The volcanoes of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa are nothing to sneeze about. Extremely high altitude.

Dry air is an issue yes, not sure about shear. NHC not putting much emphasis on shear being an issue.

[Yellow Evan]

AFAIK Spiky outflow means it's trying to develop quickly. If it's not careful, it'll suck in all that dry air and weaken quickly. Still this might become a hurricane after all.

[Kingarabian]

[img]Picture[/img]

AFAIK Spiky outflow means it's trying to develop quickly. If it's not careful, it'll suck in all that dry air and weaken quickly. Still this might become a hurricane after all.

Imo, how much it strengthens within the next 24 hours will determine how much it affects the Hawaiian Islands.

Now lets not forget about Daniel of 2006. It was a strong Major Hurricane and it was expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands as a Tropical Storm. But it surprisingly weakened and became a Tropical Depression the very next day.

Daniel was forecast to track through the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical storm as water temperatures near the islands were warmer,[15] and wind shear was expected to be minimal.[16] However, it decelerated as the ridge to its north weakened, and due to the combination of cool waters and increasing easterly shear, Daniel weakened to a tropical storm on July 25.[1] Later that day, no active convection remained near the exposed circulation center, and early on July 26 it weakened to tropical depression status. Thunderstorm activity failed to redevelop, and Daniel degenerated into a remnant low pressure area by 0000 UTC on July 27. The remnant low continued west-northwestward, dissipating just south-east of the Big Island of Hawaii on July 28.[16]

Hurricanes and the Hawaiian Islands... Not exactly your bread and butter.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Good luck, Flossie!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

...FLOSSIE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 134.1W
ABOUT 1395 MI...2245 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR FLOSSIE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.1 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLOSSIE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE






TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

FLOSSIE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH A MORE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BETTER
DEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES ON MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND AMSU ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
FLOSSIE SHOULD COMMENCE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS...INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...NOW SHOW
FLOSSIE DISSIPATING WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 120H DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.

FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW 285/17. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A FIRM RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
WEST IN 24-48H AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...BUT IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 17.9N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 18.6N 143.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.1N 146.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 19.5N 152.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 19.5N 158.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

What are the models saying about Flossie? We don't normally follow EPAC models but with land in the way...

[Kingarabian]

What are the models saying about Flossie? We don't normally follow EPAC models but with land in the way...

Landfall over Hawaii either as a TD or a TS.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

[img]Picture[/img]

AFAIK Spiky outflow means it's trying to develop quickly. If it's not careful, it'll suck in all that dry air and weaken quickly. Still this might become a hurricane after all.

Imo, how much it strengthens within the next 24 hours will determine how much it affects the Hawaiian Islands.

Now lets not forget about Daniel of 2006. It was a strong Major Hurricane and it was expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands as a Tropical Storm. But it surprisingly weakened and became a Tropical Depression the very next day.

Daniel was forecast to track through the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical storm as water temperatures near the islands were warmer,[15] and wind shear was expected to be minimal.[16] However, it decelerated as the ridge to its north weakened, and due to the combination of cool waters and increasing easterly shear, Daniel weakened to a tropical storm on July 25.[1] Later that day, no active convection remained near the exposed circulation center, and early on July 26 it weakened to tropical depression status. Thunderstorm activity failed to redevelop, and Daniel degenerated into a remnant low pressure area by 0000 UTC on July 27. The remnant low continued west-northwestward, dissipating just south-east of the Big Island of Hawaii on July 28.[16]

Hurricanes and the Hawaiian Islands... Not exactly your bread and butter.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, if it intensifies quickly over the next 12 hours, it's more likely to weaken rapidly like Daniel did. I don't think is gonna pull a Daniel. Gil 83, Dallia 89, and Narda 83 are all better analogs IMO than Daniel 06.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm starting to think this might become a hurricane.