ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

How do you see the position of 00z Best Track?

AL, 93, 2013061700, , BEST, 0, 154N, 848W, 20, 1009, DB

too far south by about 100 miles and over land lol and there are multiple pressures of 1008 but hey only one mb

I totally agree. Center is well north of best track.

[cycloneye]

How do you see the position of 00z Best Track?

AL, 93, 2013061700, , BEST, 0, 154N, 848W, 20, 1009, DB

too far south by about 100 miles and over land lol and there are multiple pressures of 1008 but hey only one mb

I totally agree. Center is well north of best track.

They are staying with continuity.

[ozonepete]

They are staying with continuity.

I agree, Luis. And that's ok - no harm done right now. The true center is still "finding itself" anyway. But I just can't see it where best track has it.

[Hurricaneman]

Im starting to think the best track is following what used to be an old MLC and the new one just happened to develop 100mile NNE of the old one which means don't look at the models, they'd all be thrown in the trash due to incorrect data

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Have to agree the low-level circulation is farther north than otherwise advertised in the 0z ATCF update.

[wxman57]

Circulation appears to be well inland along 15N near 85W. Over eastern Honduras.

[Hurricaneman]

If wxman57 is right this is severely decoupled by shear, or we are witnessing a reformation 75miles NNE

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If wxman57 is right this is severely decoupled by shear, or we are witnessing a reformation 75miles NNE

Invest 93L is experiencing no shear. The environment is fantastic as a result of divergence from the upper-level trough to its northwest and the expansive anticyclonic flow atop the disturbance.

[cycloneye]

Here is how is moving per 00z Best Track.

LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 84.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Very obviously a low-level circulation northeast of that convective burst in the final few frames.

[ozonepete]

Yup. It's quite obvious. Could be some Beta effect pulling it northward.

[NDG]

Too bad there are no surface obsevations reporting in the eastern tip of Honduras & NE Nicaragua lately. It would give us a better picture if the LLC (if any) is onshore or offshore.

[cycloneye]

[Alyono]

SHIPS is indicating that there will be moderate shear affecting this throughout the next 72 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

You can now clearly see the circ on sat offshore moving just north of west and it fits well with surface obs.

run the loop. you can see the old mlc inland and being its te rgb loop the low lvl clouds
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html at night are the darker blue grey..

[cycloneye]

You can now clearly see the circ on sat offshore moving just north of west and it fits well with surface obs.

run the loop. you can see the old mlc inland and being its te rgb loop the low lvl clouds
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html at night are the darker blue grey..

http://imageshack.us/a/img94/7092/f0c5.jpg

00z Best Track is SW of the red circle. Let's see if the continuity ends on the 06z data or not.

[chaser1]

No doubt the LLC had moved inland some time ago, however there would appear to be a pretty vigorous co-located mid level circulation that seems to be tilted/oriented a bit to the north. The upper high over the system appears to be expanding northward and for the moment would appear to be favoring a good deal of bursting north of the prior center and closer to the MLC. All the while intense convection closer to the original center is on the increase and as that original center had no doubt filled, it seems to me that a reformation may well be occuring near the coastline. My guess would be 16.0 and 85.5.

[NDG]

SHIPS is indicating that there will be moderate shear affecting this throughout the next 72 hours.

I would say more like "light to moderate shear".
Currently shear is estimated only at 10 knots.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13061 ... _ships.txt

[Aric Dunn]

new frame came in.. convection beginning to fire in association with the area i pointed out. and clearly see the rotation and motion of the new convection.. you need only to toggle the last 3 frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ozonepete]

No doubt the LLC had moved inland some time ago, however there would appear to be a pretty vigorous co-located mid level circulation that seems to be tilted/oriented a bit to the north. The upper high over the system appears to be expanding northward and for the moment would appear to be favoring a good deal of bursting north of the prior center and closer to the MLC. All the while intense convection closer to the original center is on the increase and as that original center had no doubt filled, it seems to me that a reformation may well be occuring near the coastline. My guess would be 16.0 and 85.5.

Very well said. I have 16.2N 84.3W right now. The important point is that we all see it offshore.