![Image](http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/5461/sh1813.gif)
WTXS33 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 98.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 98.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.9S 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.1S 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.2S 100.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.2S 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.3S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.6S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.6S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 99.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 980 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WESTWARD, FULLY
EXPOSING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT APPEARS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY
UNRAVELED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG (20-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS STRONG VWS WILL PERSIST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INTENSIFY AS THE VWS DECREASES AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
WEAKENED BY THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CYCLONE; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS IN TRACK SPEED WITH GFDN THE FASTEST
AND WBAR THE SLOWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
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