WPAC: TAPAH - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 140422 1200 5.5N 157.0E WPAC 15 1010

Southwest of Pohnpei...


99W FLOATER

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is what the CPC has been hinting on. Let's see this time if it will actually develop into our next named storm. They say they have high confidence on development Southeast of Guam.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What does this look like now?

[euro6208]

ECM showing only a low pressure area passing between yap and guam while GFS has a track closer to guam (southwest of island) bringing with it heavy rains but remains a weak tropical storm before recurving out to sea...

[euro6208]

This is what the CPC has been hinting on. Let's see this time if it will actually develop into our next named storm. They say they have high confidence on development Southeast of Guam.

New update no longer showing any development but we'll see...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now looks like an organized disturbance located in a moderate environment. Chances of tropical cyclone development now should be slightly higher if this survives the subtropical ridge. However, this develops, if the environment remains that way, this would only be below 45 knots or 83 km/h. I don't think this will be stronger than a weak tropical storm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are not official are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Finally. Models are not anymore too bullish on this one and may be closer to reality this time.

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 140423 0600 7.2N 154.6E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

Here we go!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 154.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
ILL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED BURSTS OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS A
RAPIDLY WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 9.1N 153.0E,
WHICH IS DISPLACED WELL WEST OF THE ACTUAL LLCC. A 232354Z METOP-B
IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF
THE POORLY-DEFINED, WEAK LLCC. A 232259Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 10 TO
15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 240739
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
539 PM CHST THU APR 24 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
GUAM RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GUAM
AND ROTA COASTAL WATERS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM GUAM AND ROTA TOWARDS 150E. DRIER
WEATHER IS SEEN NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CHUUK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK. MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A SLOW APPROACH
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COMING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE TURNING NORTH OR NORTHWEST. MODELS THEN
SPLIT...TAKING THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARIANAS OR KEEPING IT
JUST WEST. WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED WITH LATEST MODEL TO KEEP
MODERATE EAST WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
INCREASED FOR TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OF WEATHER JUST
EAST OF GUAM THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
STILL DEPENDS HEAVILY ON WHETHER THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES WEST
TOWARDS YAP...STALLS OUT SOUTH OF OR NEAR GUAM...OR PASSES OVER
THE MARIANAS HEADING NORTH. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MUCH
REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS THIS DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE GRIDS. A NORTH SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF FRESH WINDS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
NEAR CHUUK APPEAR TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON REGIONAL SEAS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR
DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE EASTERN END OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REACHES SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTHEAST CHUUK STATE AT 7N154E TO
END SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE AT EQ164E. THE TROUGH LIES NORTHEAST OF
BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE MAY PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT DRIFTS WEST. POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE STATES WILL EXPERIENCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS UPON THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA AGREED ON THE WEAKENING OF THE
CIRCULATION EAST OF CHUUK FOR TODAY. MODELS INDICATE QUIETER
WEATHER FOR MAJORITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FOR CHUUK STATE AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF BOTH YAP AND KOROR THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER REGIMEN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS FROM A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FOR YAP THIS EVENING AND FOR
KOROR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE FORECAST
PERIODS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR ALL THREE LOCALES BASED ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
154.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242333Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY BROADLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. A 250012Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A 05 TO 10 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER (15 TO 20
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[stormkite]

Thinking here is this invest will spin up should be enhanced with the current kelvin wave on the move.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Area still filled with high pressures. If the KW appears soon, this will have a better chance of developing. This system does not have any model support.

[euro6208]

Up to Medium!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
144.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-ORGANIZING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261158Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 261159Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10-15 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


000
FXPQ60 PGUM 262109
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
709 AM CHST SUN APR 27 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
JTWC MEDIUM SUSPECT AREA 99W IS CENTERED SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR
10N144E. A SURFACE TROUGH HEADS NORTHEASTWARD FROM 99W THROUGH
THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES TO NEAR 18N150E. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AND TROUGH. CULPRIT CONTINUES TO BE A TUTT RESIDING ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER THE MARIANA ISLAND CHAIN. A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CNMI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST STILL LOOKS WET...BUT INGREDIENTS FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL
ARE NOT ALL IN PLACE YET. REDUCED POPS FOR TODAY AS ADVERSE
INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT ON CONVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST RECENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AREAL COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF
CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASING. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. NONE OF THE INITIAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CARRIED
THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM 99W AS FAR TO THE
WEST AS IT IS...SO ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS FOR TODAY FROM EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
99W WILL STILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. CLEARING DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GRADUAL AS 99W SLOWLY LUMBERS AWAY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS IS FORMING TO THE LEE OF A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW CENTERED NEAR MINAMI TORI SHIMA AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. WAVE WATCH MODEL TABULAR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL NOT BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT COULD BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
BRING HIGH SURF TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN ON MONDAY. BLOCKING OF THE
SWELL BY TINIAN AND SAIPAN MAKES A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LESS LIKELY
FOR GUAM AND ROTA DURING THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL EVENT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY NEAR CHUUK HAS DRIFTED
FARTHER NORTHWEST TO SOUTH OF GUAM. THIS ALLOWS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
FOR POHNPEI UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND FOR KOSRAE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE RELATED
TO A FRESH SURGE IS SEEN BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 8N. IT IS
PROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAJURO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL REACH KOSRAE BY THIS
EVENING AND ALSO POHNPEI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR MINAMI TORI SHIMA. IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
TRADES TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK. WITH WEAKER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...CONVECTION COULD DIMINISH ACROSS ALL THREE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTH OF GUAM WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER CHUUK
THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE EAST WILL ARRIVE OVER THE ISLAND. AS
FRESH TRADE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TOWARD MIDWEEK...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
MIGHT NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR
CHUUK BY THEN. HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROBABLE.

A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH RUNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH OF
MINDANAO TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF GUAM AT
10N144E. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO
A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS WILL
HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE SURFACE WINDS WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE
SHOULD REMAIN GENTLE NEAR YAP AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHEAST
OF YAP TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DESPITE THIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR YAP. WINDS ALONG THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LATEST SOUNDING
DATA FROM KOROR REVEAL DRYER AIR ABOVE 600MB. THESE TWO ELEMENTS
WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOROR AS THE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CAPITAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE NICE WEATHER
FOR BOTH LOCALES THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/CHAN

[euro6208]

20140426 2101 10.3 -146.3 T1.5/1.5 99W 99W

Already at depression status...

[ManilaTC]

JMA at Minor Tropical Depression Status...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY

[stormkite]

It will at the least get to a named TS imo before the dry air get into it. Atm llcc starting to crank up. A
few marginal systems in my neck of the woods over achieved this wet season under the influence of a passing kelvin wave.


99W INVEST 140427 0000 11.2N 146.2E WPAC 20 1006

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Shear vover the area is low but its problem is the dry air. This may be a TS due to its fast rate of organization.

[euro6208]

here we go!

WTPN21 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 146.6E TO 13.7N 146.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
145.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHILE A
DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED TO THE SOUTH. A 262240Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE LLCC IS POORLY DEFINED
WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE (29 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280230Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 270555
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
355 PM CHST SUN APR 27 2014

GUZ001>005-PMZ151>154-272100-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN ISLANDS-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
355 PM CHST SUN APR 27 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

AT 100 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF GUAM WAS LOCATED NEAR 11 DEGREES NORTH AND
146 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
AND 305 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND COULD
BUILD DOWNWARD TO ASSIST IN ORGANIZING THE LOW LEVELS.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO PASS NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE WEST
OF THE MARIANAS. THE EXACT DISTANCE THAT IT PASSES TOWARD THE WEST
WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.

PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND COULD EASILY AFFECT THE
MARIANAS. RAIN FALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MONDAY OR TUESDAY. KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF
A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

STANKO