ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

I would not get too hung up on these small eddys. They will likely dissipate. The center that should become dominate is where the strong convection is starting to wrap around the MCL. The storm looks to be slowly intensifying as it slowly moves......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[ConvergenceZone]

Any bets on wind speed on the next update in about 40 minutes? Same wind speed? An Increase?

[Evil Jeremy]

Any bets on wind speed on the next update in about 40 minutes? Same wind speed? An Increase?

I'm sure NHC will hold on intensity until they get recon in there overnight.

[Alyono]

I have a question. How are there not warnings out for the Bahamas when they are reporting winds near TS intensity?

[Aric Dunn]

I have a question. How are there not warnings out for the Bahamas when they are reporting winds near TS intensity?

its up to the government of each country to decide on watches and warnings.

[hurricanes1234]

Growing convection despite the fact that it's diurnal minimum now...



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['CaneFreak]

I bet they include them in the warning at the new advisory.

I have a question. How are there not warnings out for the Bahamas when they are reporting winds near TS intensity?

[TheStormExpert]

I bet they include them in the warning at the new advisory.

I have a question. How are there not warnings out for the Bahamas when they are reporting winds near TS intensity?

Depends if and where the center relocates.

[Bocadude85]

I bet they include them in the warning at the new advisory.

I have a question. How are there not warnings out for the Bahamas when they are reporting winds near TS intensity?

I do not see why they would include them in the warning now as the system is pulling away. The 5pm advisory said Grand Bahama Island was reporting sustained winds at 39mph gusting to 51mph

[MaineWeatherNut]

I bet they include them in the warning at the new advisory.

I have a question. How are there not warnings out for the Bahamas when they are reporting winds near TS intensity?

Depends if and where the center relocates.

I doubt the center will be doing any more relocations. This one appears to be the final Center of Circulation with a banding eyewall feature developing where the convection is wrapping around... Very clear on Radar.

[AJC3]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

There is a problem with the national point and click forecasts. It shouldn't have that verbiage in it, given the forecast conditions. We've been trying to get the powers that be to fix it. No luck yet, obviously. That should disappear at the top of the next hour, hopefully.

[AJC3]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

There is a problem with the national point and click forecasts. It shouldn't have that verbiage in it, given the forecast conditions. We've been trying to get the powers that be to fix it. No luck yet, obviously. That should disappear at the top of the next hour, hopefully.

And it looks like it did....

[cycloneye]

No change in intensity.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

nice expanding CDO..

[TheAustinMan]

Per the intermediate advisory -- "...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING."

Also, present movement is listed as stationary.

[NDG]

Growing convection despite the fact that it's diurnal minimum now...



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The octane boost from the Gulf Stream!!!

[WxEnthus]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

There is a problem with the national point and click forecasts. It shouldn't have that verbiage in it, given the forecast conditions. We've been trying to get the powers that be to fix it. No luck yet, obviously. That should disappear at the top of the next hour, hopefully.

I know the nws has been (slowly) working on different wording; our local wfo is one of the testers on the proposed wording for severe storms and winter storms. But I'm unsure why the line "strong and damaging winds" is not appropriate in this instance? Are these conditions very unlikely in this area or...? Not debating the merits of your statement, just curious as to reasoning.

[bahamaswx]

I have a question. How are there not warnings out for the Bahamas when they are reporting winds near TS intensity?

its up to the government of each country to decide on watches and warnings.

I'm pretty sure the Bahamas basically lets the NHC issue their watches/warnings for them. And if they do not officially cede control, they very heavily rely on their advice.

[NDG]

Any bets on wind speed on the next update in about 40 minutes? Same wind speed? An Increase?

I believe is the Bahamian Gov't that would had had to up the warnings not the NHC.

Is past 5 pm so they shut down everything until 8 AM tomorrow, j/k

[xironman]

Looks like we are finally getting the core to develop (the one to rule them all) http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes a bit offshore than thought.