ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Can't wait to see the 00Z runs coming out around 11 or 11:30 PM EDT. The models will probably continue to have some difficulty resolving this one since they still can't be given a definite center to go with yet. At least now they "know" the LLC will be north of Hispaniola but they still can't resolve where it will go until they know where a well defined low level center is and how strong it is. This leaves us all with the fun of speculating on what will happen before the models figure it out.

[SeGaBob]

Nice burst of convection near the possible center around 19.5N 69.6W.

[hectopascal]

Would be very interesting to know how AJC3 see’s this going wth th spit . Alyono has been absolutely first class with his interpretations and at no time dismissed the possibily of the llcc.


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[Steve]

Isn't the high over LA supposed to push off to the west come Monday, thus leaving a pretty substantial break in the two ridges with the trough dropping down. In turn leaving an alleyway for 96 to scoot on out to the NE?

Local weather today has it migrating East over the course of the next few days. That 500mb GFS loop a post or two back shows it eventually kind of recentering over toward Kentucky. I think that was one of the keys with the upper patterns. Would the upper and surface highs migrate east and merge in with ridging in the Atlantic or would the alley from that sort of negatively tilted/oriented trough feeding down from the Eastern Great Lakes lifting out pick up 96L? I don't know. It's the middle of summer so most patterns aren't all that fast like you would see during other times of the year. So its ???????

Stay hydrated in that 99, hopefully with beer. Word.

[ozonepete]

Nice burst of convection near the possible center around 19.5N 69.6W.

That's where I see it. If we have the center right this should strengthen quickly tomorrow afternoon as it moves away from land and out of that narrow slice of strong southwesterly shear.

[Blown Away]

96L looking good and is slowly intensifying.. By Monday, this could be designated.



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By Monday, I would say in next 12 hours...

[Yellow Evan]

96L looking good and is slowly intensifying.. By Monday, this could be designated.



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

By Monday, I would say in next 12 hours...

Except there is no well defined LLC, is there?

[hectopascal]

firing up again.



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[Hurricaneman]

Looking at things I wouldn't be surprised if this pulls a Frances from 2004 with slow movement into Florida from the Bahamas especially with the trends

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Latest Model Track Guidance for beyond 72 hours is undecided. 96L looking good over the past few hours and may be designated soon.

Synopsis for 96L and other systems: http://goo.gl/IclmFx



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Except there is no well defined LLC, is there?

But we all know that when there's a very well defined MLC like this, and the other requisite conditions are right, an LLC can form underneath it in a few hours. That is what I would expect here, as long as the shear drops off rapidly tomorrow. And actually from satellite imagery, watching the cloud motion, it looks like the shear is already dropping off.

[Hammy]

Except there is no well defined LLC, is there?

But we all know that when there's a very well defined MLC like this, and the other requisite conditions are right, an LLC can form underneath it in a few hours. That is what I would expect here, as long as the shear drops off rapidly tomorrow. And actually from satellite imagery, watching the cloud motion, it looks like the shear is already dropping off.

based on the cloud motion (the actual towers) it looks like a center may have formed or is currently forming over the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, and it also looks like it's moving much slower than earlier which should keep it from running into the shear wall to the west and give the upper level conditions time to improve.

[SeGaBob]

I'm wondering IF current trends continue if NHC will designate this a TS at 5am or wait for recon...

[Alyono]

dont think the shear is dropping off. wave axis near 70.5W give or take a half of a degree

[Blown Away]

Most of the time these models overdue the stall time w/ these system... 00z GFS has 96L sitting in Bahamas for nearly 3 days... What's interesting will be the NHC cone when 96L becomes classified... SFL will likely be in 5 day cone and maybe 3 day...

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm wondering IF current trends continue if NHC will designate this a TS at 5am or wait for recon...

The NHC very rarely declares a system at 5am. They usually wait for morning satellite images, or has been the case increasingly over the years, for recon to confirm a closed low.

[gatorcane]

It does seem it might be starting to get "tangled" up in the big island of Hispaniola, the slower it moves the more time there will be for the trough to pick it up.

[blp]

It does seem it might be starting to get "tangled" up in the big island of Hispaniola, the slower it moves the more time there will be for the trough to pick it up.

Yep these moments are critical it needs to get passed 75W IMO to be in a good position for a trap tomorrow. Still lots of uncertainty here.

[Alyono]

look how flat the western side is. This is shear. To get the surface feature, you must look west of the convection

[NDG]

Very clearly seen the mid level circulation of 96L inland over the eastern section of Hispaniola on hr satellite loop.