ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

blp · #81 Postby **blp** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:56 pm

Steve820 wrote:Hopefully it doesn't become named. I don't want any name-stealers. But, at least it became a tropical cyclone!

After what we had last year, I will take it. At least we are tracking something.

#82 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:58 pm

I believe the fact it is so small and came up from such a low latitude has gotten it this far. It really hasn't wrapped in much dry air to this point.

#83 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 4:01 pm

Saved WV floater loop. It seems the moisture envelope around the depression is staying in tact quite nicely with the yellows (dry air) staying to the north:

Miami Storm Tracker · #84 Postby **Miami Storm Tracker** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 4:03 pm

blp wrote:
Steve820 wrote:Hopefully it doesn't become named. I don't want any name-stealers. But, at least it became a tropical cyclone!

After what we had last year, I will take it. At least we are tracking something.

Afternoon B. get back to work Lol.

#85 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 4:26 pm

Models might have a hard time with this one being so small. They usually give them fits!

#86 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 4:59 pm

Live IR loop http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-38&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

TheStormExpert · #87 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:04 pm

Steve820 wrote:Hopefully it doesn't become named. I don't want any name-stealers. But, at least it became a tropical cyclone!

I personally hope it becomes TS Bertha since at the end of the season they go by how many Named Storms developed, and TD's kind of get excluded since they are basically weaklings. :lol:

sunnyday · #88 Postby **sunnyday** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:05 pm

Friends on Florida's east coast heard local mets say this will dissipate due to SAL. Does anyone disagree?

#89 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:06 pm

Steve820 wrote:Hopefully it doesn't become named. I don't want any name-stealers. But, at least it became a tropical cyclone!

Lol!

I respectfully disagree - I don't like wasted names either, but I dislike nameless depressions even more!

. If this doesn't get named then this will become another season of 03L = Bertha, etc., everything's gonna be mismatched... let's just get it named, kill it after an advisory, and start looking for Cristobal.

Hammy · #90 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:47 pm

I'm not going to put too much stock into the intensity forecast for the time being, as this seems to have caught everyone off guard. Six hours from 20% to 70% then three hours later a TD, the models never forecasted even that, so it would not be surprising with that taken into account to see it make it to at least 45 mph.

#91 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:54 pm

This is the strongest convection near its LLC I have seen all day.

#92 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:00 pm

Tropical Depression 02L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUL 2014 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 11:37:30 N Lon : 43:58:24 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1015.0mb/ 31.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.1 2.1

Center Temp : -40.9C Cloud Region Temp : -33.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

HURRICANELONNY · #93 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:11 pm

Hammy wrote:I'm not going to put too much stock into the intensity forecast for the time being, as this seems to have caught everyone off guard. Six hours from 20% to 70% then three hours later a TD, the models never forecasted even that, so it would not be surprising with that taken into account to see it make it to at least 45 mph.

I agree. Wasn't it 10% and 10% 5 days out. The world of the tropics. Nothing surprises me. Doubt it has much of a future but like I said. :eek:

floridasun78 · #94 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:21 pm

was models not forming td out wave past few runs so this suppise to few

#95 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:37 pm

Well, I was definitely surprised to learn that our system out there in the MDR was named a TD today. I was certain dry air would kill the wave, but like some of you have stated, the tropics can offer a surprise or two and apparently we are seeing that here.

Being a very small TD has apparently allowed the system to keep a decent moisture envelope for now. However, after the next couple of days, I don't see this system surviving as eventually hostile conditions (dry air and shear) will seal its fate.

But, it has done far more than what most of us imagined to this point and it may get named in the next 24 hours before conditions become unfavorable.

#96 Postby **abajan** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:43 pm

There appears to be a nice blowup of convection occurring now.

hurricanes1234 · #97 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:54 pm

What a tiny little system!

torrea40 · #98 Postby **torrea40** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:55 pm

Really.??????????????????

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook http://bit.ly/1n6PFz3

galaxy401 · #99 Postby **galaxy401** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:01 pm

Steve820 wrote:Hopefully it doesn't become named. I don't want any name-stealers. But, at least it became a tropical cyclone!

While I understand your point, IMO opinion if the system reaches 40 mph then it should be named even if it lasts only 6 hours.

This system certainly snuck up on me. Only saw it as a simple wave with a very low chance of development yesterday. Nice little surprise while we wait for the peak months.

hurricanes1234 · #100 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:01 pm

Reply to two posts before: Oops, not sure if that's an error. Unless they're saying that no other systems are expected to form.

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