xtyphooncyclonex wrote:JTWC now with 30 knots according to their Best Track. No change in latitude but is moving westerly.
I still see 25 knots...
Anywhere here is the latest prog...
WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 031132Z
METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW FUELING THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 031132Z
ASCAT IMAGE AND AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 03/06Z
WARNING POSITION WAS RE-POSITIONED ABOUT 40 NM NORTHEAST BASED ON
THE ASCAT IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25
KNOTS BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND
THE ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BROAD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND WARM SST (29 TO 30 CELSIUS). ADDITIONALLY, TD 05W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK OVER HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC)
THROUGH TAU 72. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 72 (RATE OF 10 KNOTS PER DAY). ALTHOUGH SST
AND OHC VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WILL LACK A STRONG
OUTFLOW MECHANISM. THEREFORE, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC,
WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRACK DIRECTION,
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEED ISSUES AS WELL AS TWO MODELS, GFS
AND GFDN, TRUNCATING THE FORECAST AT TAU 48. IN GENERAL, THE MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC
SHOW A FLATTER WESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, EVENTUALLY TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE ISLAND OF
PALAU AND INTO THE EAST PHILIPPINE SEA. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY, WHICH MAY ACT TO SLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS AND IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, WHICH PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 55 TO
65 KNOTS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THUS THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE
TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE AND INITIAL POSITIONING
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
