ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#781 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:00 am

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 68.7W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


I stand corrected about no more strengthening.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#782 Postby FireRat » Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:24 am

The Donut returns, and bigger than before!
Let's see what this beast does as it begins shooting NNE...will it continue blowing up as it heads for Bermuda? or will shear weaken it a bit as it gets shoved that way? I feel these are the big questions now in play. It definitely looks like it's getting stronger on satellite. It's gonna be a stunner on the visible come morning daylight!
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Re:

#783 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:46 am

spiral wrote:looks closer to 110 knots down a bit but still a major powerful cane.


110kts = 125mph, so it's actually at that intensity.

I'm hoping this weakens quickly as it approaches Bermuda, but in the meantime, I'm hoping it can hold it's organization through the next recon cycle so we can get a good measurement of the current intensity, as it appears to have strengthened even over the last hour.
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Re:

#784 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:45 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The 114 kt SFMR was in moderate rain - enough to make it questionable?

The 114 knot SFMR reading had rain of 39mm, I consider anything over 10mm "suspect". Once you get above about 9 or 10, the rain starts inflating the wind speed.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#785 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:45 am

Gracious. Just look at the organization. I stand corrected in assuming that Gonzalo wouldn't regain its former glory in this second round of intensification. That said, it's only got a short window left to do too much more. The trough is approaching pretty fast. Were I in Bermuda, I would be very concerned.

Image
Last edited by EquusStorm on Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#786 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:46 am

08L GONZALO 141016 0600 25.0N 68.7W ATL 115 949

120-125kts doesn't look too unrealistic for the peak if it strengthens through today.
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#787 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:49 am

It's one of the most overused terms on these forums, but he's starting to look a bit annular to me.
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#788 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:58 am

I would just like to see it hurry up and dip to 939mb and beat out Ophelia and Sandy for most intense storm since 2010 before weakening and passing by Bermuda. Honestly, it could happen. It would only take, what, an additional 10mb drop through the next day or so?

Also I kind of think the core structure reorganization is a pretty bad thing for Bermuda... the hurricane force wind radius has nearly doubled, though it's still fairly compact. I hope not, but I can't help but wonder if in the future we'll think of Gonzalo as 'Fabian Part Two: The October Redux, Now With Added Caribbean Impact!'
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#789 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:53 am

With it now stronger than it was yesterday as a Cat.4 and as of 5am forecasted to come closer to Bermuda than it was at 11pm, you'd hope The Weather Channel sends someone there to cover this monster of a storm.
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#790 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:56 am

The 5 am advisory has the hurricane back to 120 knots, Category 4 again.
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#791 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:57 am

Probably the best he's ever looked right now.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#792 Postby beoumont » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:23 am

1st visible, Godzilla:

Image

Also, recon at 8600 ft had 937.5 mb, not yet corrected/ or adjusted.
Last edited by beoumont on Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#793 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:28 am

Central pressure maybe near 939mb based on dropsonde
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:41 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#794 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:37 am

Image
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Re:

#795 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:53 am

brunota2003 wrote:The 5 am advisory has the hurricane back to 120 knots, Category 4 again.
Speaking under correction, the 140 mph MSW intensity at 5 AM is actually the most powerful Gonzalo has ever been. Should be interesting to see what it is at 8 AM.

EDIT: Thankfully, it's still at 140 mph in the 8 AM update.
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Re: Re:

#796 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:58 am

abajan wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:The 5 am advisory has the hurricane back to 120 knots, Category 4 again.
Speaking under correction, the 140 mph MSW intensity at 5 AM is actually the most powerful Gonzalo has ever been. Should be interesting to see what it is at 8 AM.

EDIT: Thankfully, it's still at 140 mph in the 8 AM update.

Pressure dropped though 5mb, now 940mb. :eek:
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#797 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:03 am

Gonzalo is as impressive as a hurricane can appear right now. Classic, textbook hurricane for certain.

Praying for all on Bermuda as this monstruous storm approaches.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#798 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:04 am

They kept intensity unchanged because the NE quadrant has yet to be sampled by recon
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#799 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:35 am

Cat.4 Gonzalo

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#800 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:40 am

135kt SFMR wind reported in NE eyewall with moderate rain
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