ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I'll take the wager Hammy

I'll put $500 on it that this will not be down to a cat 1 tomorrow

Tempting be Alyono, and was about to jump on the bandwagon with you, but jeez... looking at the buzz-saw shear advancing from the west. Gustavo is resembling the 'ol "suicide squeeze play" in baseball. At least temporarily it appears that the vort. max is swinging around the west side of the eye and for the moment is at least helping warm the atmosphere so to perhaps hold off approaching shear temporarily. But to be able to stave off that shear for a full 24 hours?? I don't know, hard for me to see that. Makes for a fun bet and discussion though

Once it gets into higher latitudes (in October that would be north of 30N), shear becomes less important as it starts to transition to extratropical.

[cycloneye]

Is 105 but they could go with 100 as Crazy said.

AL, 08, 2014101600, , BEST, 0, 243N, 686W, 105, 953, HU

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I would say that on Microwave imagery, it looks 120 kts however 105 kts on satellite and recon, which would mean that the best estimate would be close to 110 kts. As the EWRC had completed, it may linger or even strengthen a bit. Given that as this has sustained its strength for quite long (110-115), it may be in the neighborhood of 85-105 kts tomorrow. Agree? OR Disagree?

AND FYI This is the most impressive ATL storm that I've ever tracked, since I rarely follow the basin.

[CrazyC83]

One thing for sure, the storm has grown in size in terms of tropical storm wind field...

[Hammy]

One thing for sure, the storm has grown in size in terms of tropical storm wind field...

Would that, along with the ERC, explain why the weakening occurred without a pressure drop?

[CrazyC83]

One thing for sure, the storm has grown in size in terms of tropical storm wind field...

Would that, along with the ERC, explain why the weakening occurred without a pressure drop?

Most likely. Sometimes the pressure can fall even with weakening, such as with Dean and Irene.

[JtSmarts]

Looks like the eye may try to reemerge soon on ir.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ozonepete]

Looks like the eye may try to reemerge soon on ir.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

It's there, very clear.

[ozonepete]

Still has a minimal of at-least 5 towers lighting up in the NE core and a few in the feeder bands. Still looks 115 knot storm.

No matter what the intensity really is right now I'd have to agree it looks 115 knots in the last few frames. I think it's RI'ing again.

[hurricanes1234]

Agreed, looks good again with the eye seemingly reappearing, could this be strengthening again?

[Kingarabian]

Hope Bermuda is prepared.

[JtSmarts]

It's been an adjustment seeing 115 kt and not thinking 135 mph.

[MGC]

Last VDM reported an 18NM eye that was open to the south. Since that report, it appears that Gonzalo's eye has become better defined looking at the IR loop. So to me it looks to be slightly stronger....but that is just my amateur opinion. Wonder how the wind field has reacted to the EWRC?.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

Recon is definitely having issues transmitting tonight.

[ozonepete]

It has clearly done the first part of the expected recurve and is moving northward now. A lot of times as these recurve because of an approaching trough they slow down and lose some intensity but then can ramp up one more time before the trough starts a stronger interaction with them. That trough is getting close but not close enough to exchange dry continental air with it yet. That may be why the western side got ragged for a while today but seems to be smoothing out again now.

[tolakram]

Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-68&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10

[supercane4867]

ADT raw T-number upped to 6.3 as cloud tops cooling significantly with -70°C ring surrounding the eye

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 968.5mb/ 90.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.4 6.3

Center Temp : -26.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ptarmigan]

953 millibars and 120 mph winds is about normal. I have seen Category 2 to 4 hurricanes with that pressure. It is due to ambient pressure or size. Smaller have tighter gradients and stronger winds.

[CrazyC83]

The 114 kt SFMR was in moderate rain - enough to make it questionable?

[EquusStorm]

Well color me impressed, the ol' boy looks like he's gotten his second wind tonight. A larger and much more pronounced eye is evident and the eyewall looks about as organized as it's ever been. The storm's overall a little more symmetrical too. It doesn't have long to try to regain a little intensity though, violent shear is already apparent not too far off to the west.