CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC as usual is late for the advisory.

Hey, at least their webpage works and loads quickly when it did not in 2013.

[galaxy401]

Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
Issued at 200 PM HST WED AUG 06 2014
SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 17.5N 146.8W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 90 MPH...150 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[AFWeather]

CPHC as usual is late for the advisory.

Hey, at least their webpage works and loads quickly when it did not in 2013.

CPHC is basically an additional task/responsibility for the Honolulu WFO. So they're trying to put out all the stuff the WFO would (hurricane local statements, flash flood products, etc), PLUS function as a Hurricane Center. Cut them some slack.

An exerpt of something they put out recently for the big island:

...WINDS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...WINDS OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. IN SOME AREAS...WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDING STRUCTURES COULD OCCUR...PRIMARILY TO UNANCHORED STRUCTURES...SUCH AS SCHOOL PORTABLES. SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED SIGNS. LOOSE ITEMS LEFT OUTDOORS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. PERSONS STRUCK BY WINDBORNE DEBRIS RISK INJURY AND POSSIBLE DEATH. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP. SOME TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE POWER OUTAGES WITH SOME DOWNED POWER POLES.

GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THROUGH PASSES...AND WHERE WINDS BLOW DOWNSLOPE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL STEADILY INCREASE ALONG THE BIG ISLAND WINDWARD COAST TODAY...AND REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS AS THE STORM APPROACHES. INCREASING SURF WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF ISELLE WITH SURF HEIGHTS REACHING 15 TO 25 FEET ON THURSDAY. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE FOR HILO BAY IS 120 PM AT 2.8 FEET ON THURSDAY AND 203 PM AT 3.0
FEET ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH SURF AND HIGH TIDE COMBINATION WILL BRING COASTAL FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING AREAS. STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THE STORM PASSAGE...ADDING TO THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 12 INCHES. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

[WeatherGuesser]

CPHC is basically an additional task/responsibility for the Honolulu WFO. So they're trying to put out all the stuff the WFO would (hurricane local statements, flash flood products, etc), PLUS function as a Hurricane Center. Cut them some slack.

Yeah, I don't get the impatience and incessant fussing over advisory posting times.

[Kingarabian]

CPHC is basically an additional task/responsibility for the Honolulu WFO. So they're trying to put out all the stuff the WFO would (hurricane local statements, flash flood products, etc), PLUS function as a Hurricane Center. Cut them some slack.

Yeah, I don't get the impatience and incessant fussing over advisory posting times.

We're just used to the NHC and its on time performance.

[Cyclenall]

Iselle's eye is collapsing again and the convection around it ragged.

we're not close to el niño, however

Looks toasty where Iselle is and in the general vicinity of Hawaii.

That whole map looks toasty. Something seems off about it.

[supercane4867]

Cloud tops reached -70°C for the first time since it lost annular structure

[supercane]

WTPA33 PHFO 062357
TCPCP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
200 PM HST WED AUG 06 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISELLE CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 146.8W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN KAUAI COUNTY AND THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
ADDITIONAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.8 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ISELLE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

DATA FROM U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ISELLE MAY STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER
THE BIG ISLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...225 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF MAUI
COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
OAHU THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL REACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TODAY...WITH LARGE...DAMAGING SURF EXPECTED ALONG MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH SHORES STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND ROCK AND MUD
SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU...1 TO 3 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[CrazyC83]

Next Recon arrives around 0600Z?

[AFWeather]

Next Recon arrives around 0600Z?

0500Z based on the message they sent out. They're departing at 0330Z, arriving at 0500Z, and ending the mission around 1130Z.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 09, 2014080700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1467W, 80, 982, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 80, 35, 120, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1467W, 80, 982, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 30, 20, 50, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1467W, 80, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 20, 0, 30, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

[AFWeather]

Just me or is the storm a little north of CPHC's track?

[Frank2]

I noticed that too...

[Riptide]

Iselle's eye is collapsing again and the convection around it ragged.

we're not close to el niño, however

Looks toasty where Iselle is and in the general vicinity of Hawaii.

That whole map looks toasty. Something seems off about it.

It has been a record year for SSTA globally, right up there around 97/98 levels. Bodes well for all basins in general, and the delay of the Strong/Mod El Nino will probably salvage the Atlantic season.

[AFWeather]

Well, like we've reasoned all along, a stronger than expected storm was going to track further north. Right now we're talking about not even half a degree of latitude, but it all adds up. The intensity is at least loosely tied to the track for this system. She was expected to be weaker than what we're observing based on the recon and satellite.

[CrazyC83]

If it threads the needle between the Big Island and Maui, it could give the entire Hawaiian island chain significant impacts.

[AFWeather]

If it threads the needle between the Big Island and Maui, it could give the entire Hawaiian island chain significant impacts.

I'd be somewhat surprised if it tracked that far north... but it's still in the realm of possibility. If the shear that's forecast to develop is late or not as strong as expected... this storm will weaken very little. It's fought the dry air sucessfully thus far.

[Alyono]

shear probably wont hit this until landfall

[WeatherGuesser]

Seems odd there's so little traffic on this thread. Maybe it'll pick up tomorrow as landfall nears.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it definitely is above the forecast CPHC track.