CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Do possible El Niño conditions make conditions more favorable for hurricanes to impact Hawaii??

Yes, all notable Hawaii storms sans Hiki were in El Nino years.

[Alyono]

we're not close to el niño, however

[Kingarabian]

Either maintaining really well or attempting to strengthen.

[Yellow Evan]

we're not close to el niño, however

We arguably have had near-El Nino-like conditions for the past few months, but that is a topic for another thread.

[Cyclenall]

Looks like a Central Pacific Epsilon...

That's what Iselle reminds me the most of, Hurricane Epsilon. Its really cool looking again and that water vapor loop showing it going from slop to this was incredible, never seen that before in 9 years of watching. The inner core is vigorous and was untouched so when shear decreased convection just magically-like formed right around it again.

[AFWeather]

Don't see a track change with the 18Z GFS. Wonder what recon data (if any) was ingested. Interested in what the 00Z shows us. Don't expect a track change for the next update (5PM Hawaiian).

[tallywx]

Don't see a track change with the 18Z GFS. Wonder what recon data (if any) was ingested. Interested in what the 00Z shows us. Don't expect a track change for the next update (5PM Hawaiian).

It's almost nowcast time.

[AFWeather]

Don't see a track change with the 18Z GFS. Wonder what recon data (if any) was ingested. Interested in what the 00Z shows us. Don't expect a track change for the next update (5PM Hawaiian).

It's almost nowcast time.

Yep, especially for the big island. Still interested in the slight possibility of it jogging north and impacting Oahu differently. Short term track should only change very slightly from now on.

[tallywx]

Don't see a track change with the 18Z GFS. Wonder what recon data (if any) was ingested. Interested in what the 00Z shows us. Don't expect a track change for the next update (5PM Hawaiian).

It's almost nowcast time.

Yep, especially for the big island. Still interested in the slight possibility of it jogging north and impacting Oahu differently. Short term track should only change very slightly from now on.

The mountains of the Big Island could throw any track thereafter off, at least temporarily. We've seen unusual things happen vis Hispanola with circulations disrupted and spit out (unexpectedly) either north or south of that island. Who knows what Iselle will do around Mauna Loa/Kea.

[Yellow Evan]

It's almost nowcast time.

Yep, especially for the big island. Still interested in the slight possibility of it jogging north and impacting Oahu differently. Short term track should only change very slightly from now on.

The mountains of the Big Island could throw any track thereafter off, at least temporarily. We've seen unusual things happen vis Hispanola with circulations disrupted and spit out (unexpectedly) either north or south of that island. Who knows what Iselle will do around Mauna Loa/Kea.

For sure, though I'd lean towards being spit out to the south rather than the north.

[Alyono]

the eye is not as well defined now as it was earlier. Not sure if this is merely cirrus from the convection, though

[WeatherGuesser]

The mountains of the Big Island could throw any track thereafter off, at least temporarily. We've seen unusual things happen vis Hispanola with circulations disrupted and spit out (unexpectedly) either north or south of that island.

How do the two compare as far as land mass area and elevation?

[Alyono]

Big Island MUCH higher mountains than Hispañiola

[tallywx]

the eye is not as well defined now as it was earlier. Not sure if this is merely cirrus from the convection, though

This is also around D-Min, isn't it?

[Alyono]

this is around the D min, but that usually doesnt matter for a well formed cane

[Kingarabian]

Eyewall seems to be contracting, filled with cirrus clouds, and a small eye in the middle. Don't know what to make of it as we haven't had a half decent microwave pass in a while.

[Yellow Evan]

Eyewall seems to be contracting, filled with cirrus clouds, and a small eye in the middle. Don't know what to make of it as we haven't had a half decent microwave pass in a while.

I almost think it's an ERC.

[Riptide]

we're not close to el niño, however

Looks toasty where Iselle is and in the general vicinity of Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Pressure was pretty steady. If anything it was holding its own.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF along with GFS shifted slightly to the north, forecast near 75kt at landfall