ATL: Ex NINE

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I respect NHC's decision to lower the 5-day odds to 10% given 94L's proximity to land, but satellite trends tonight suggest that this has higher than a 10% chance of development.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track coincides with the 50 miles east of Nicaragua/Honduras border TWO position.

AL, 94, 2014102700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 823W, 30, 1007, LO

[cycloneye]

Text of 00z Best Track.

At 0000 UTC, 27 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.3°N and 82.3°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 245 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[floridasun78]

let see if low move west go over land on Monday

[ozonepete]

I sure hope the people in eastern Honduras and Nicaragua are getting good warnings from their local offices. They could have big flooding and mudslide issues no matter what this system does.

[cycloneye]

The 00z surface analysis moves it WSW inland.

[ozonepete]

Unless it drifts south or southeastward. That's why I'm thinking it still needs to be watched.

Btw, sure looks like a TD already.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Unless it drifts south or southeastward. That's why I'm thinking it still needs to be watched.

Btw, sure looks like a TD already.

Agree 100%

And from the satellite loops the movement looks S or SSW very slowly, if at all, not west or southwest. That would keep the center offshore.

[HURAKAN]

not a surface product

[wyq614]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea near Cabo Gracias
a Dios, Nicaragua. Although showers and thunderstorms associated
with this system have increased and become more concentrated during
the past 12 hours, surface pressures are not falling. The low is
expected to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land later
today, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms
along the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Although this system is showing signs of development, the low is
forecast to move southwestward inland over Nicaragua later today.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are possible
over portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras during
the day.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

TS HANNA!

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
835 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to describe increased organization of low pressure
system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Updated: The small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms
along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and
satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has
tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation. As a
result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a
Special Advisory will be issued by 900 am EDT...1300 UTC. Tropical
storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg

[NDG]

Convection persisted during the night near the LLC. This is already a TD this morning, but whatever, is about to move inland.

Look at the nice SE inflow it has in the eastern quadrant.




Edit: I see that this is now Hanna, I guess the NHC slept through the night, lol.
Seriously, the problem is that there is very little reporting stations in that part of the world that report during the night.

[tolakram]

10/10 to 30/30. Hmmm.

Live visible loop
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

[NDG]

10/10 to 30/30. Hmmm.

Live visible loop
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

To Tropical Storm Hanna

[cycloneye]

I am sure they will look at this system on post season analysis.

[terstorm1012]

well this was unexpected! I'd all but written it off.

[NDG]

I am sure they will look at this system on post season analysis.

I am sure they are going to come to the conclusion that it was a TD as early as last night, very clearly it has had a fairly vigorous little circulation.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Completely expected. Never take your eye off a meandering disturbance in a low shear environment in the West Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

At 1200 UTC, 27 October 2014, TROPICAL STORM HANNA (AL09) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.6°N and 82.9°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 240 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb.