ATL: Ex NINE

[SeGaBob]

You've said this at least 10-15 times so stop saying it...we get what you think.

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: You've said this at least 10-15 times so stop saying it...we get what you think.

I think its been said 25 times, but who's counting...

[cycloneye]

Text of 18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 26 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.4°N and 81.6°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 170 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[cycloneye]

For Tuesday afternoon a plane is scheduled to go (If necessary)

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 16.5N 86.0W AT 28/1730Z.

[Yellow Evan]

Why don't you look at reality? It isn't dead yet

It pretty much is.

[floridasun78]

sorry ssay this some here think their work at nhc their one know not dead untill nhc say it is

[AdamFirst]

It's been poof for five days, and yet it's still here.

[floridasun78]

It's been poof for five days, and yet it's still here.

you right been call dead alot here since Friday still round

[NDG]

Pressures falling again in the vicinity of 94L.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NW ( 322 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.08 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.8 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 19.4 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[gatorcane]

Saved floater loop, looks like it may have become nearly stationary with some high towers noted right over the highest area of vorticity. Circulation very evident:

[Evil Jeremy]

No doubt about it, something's kicking. Kudos to ozonepete, gatorcane, cycloneye and the others who kept an eye on this.

[stormlover2013]

Lol lol good strong thunderstorms that's all it is

[ozonepete]

No doubt about it, something's kicking. Kudos to ozonepete, gatorcane, cycloneye and the others who kept an eye on this.

Thanks, EJ. And if you look back at our posts on Thursday and Friday we said this would have the best chance on Sunday.

This thing is exploding right now over very warm water.

[LarryWx]

No doubt about it, something's kicking. Kudos to ozonepete, gatorcane, cycloneye and the others who kept an eye on this.

Thanks, EJ. And if you look back at our posts on Thursday and Friday we said this would have the best chance on Sunday.

This thing is exploding right now over very warm water.

IF this is ever going to do become a TD+, it had better hurry up and do it. The model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Pressures falling again in the vicinity of 94L.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NW ( 322 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.08 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.8 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 19.4 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

We'll have to wait a few hours to see if these pressure falls are unrelated to diurnal minimum. 94L is definitely becoming better organized this afternoon, however.

[cycloneye]

ozonepete,You think land will be the main factor for this to not redevelop?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

No doubt about it, something's kicking. Kudos to ozonepete, gatorcane, cycloneye and the others who kept an eye on this.

Thanks, EJ. And if you look back at our posts on Thursday and Friday we said this would have the best chance on Sunday.

This thing is exploding right now over very warm water.

IF this is ever going to do become a TD+, it had better hurry up and do it. The model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing?

Hard to say. Most model guidance shows this tracking west-southwestward into Honduras in about 24 hours. The NHC shows this taking a west-northwest track instead, which would bring it ashore the Yucatan in 72-96 hours.

[ozonepete]

No doubt about it, something's kicking. Kudos to ozonepete, gatorcane, cycloneye and the others who kept an eye on this.

Thanks, EJ. And if you look back at our posts on Thursday and Friday we said this would have the best chance on Sunday.

This thing is exploding right now over very warm water.

IF this is ever going to do become a TD+, it had better hurry up and do it. The model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing?

Yeah I do, Larry. It's practically stationary right now and steering winds are very light. It could hang out there for a lot longer than 12 hours before it starts moving west, especially if it drifts a little further south or east.

[ozonepete]

ozonepete,You think land will be the main factor for this to not redevelop?

Yeah Luis. I still think it's doomed to go west or southwest into land at some point. And though not very likely, there is a chance it could drift eastward or southeastward and then it could hang out for days in very light steering winds.

Oh, but I should add it sure looks like it will make TS before that happens.

[gatorcane]

We are seeing signs of organization the past several hours. Water temps are around 84F where this invest is located and deep convection with high towers continues to blow up right over the area of vorticity. I am still not seeing any movement either. Look at that huge upper-high right on top (second image below). We are witnessing the power of the NW Caribbean. All this invest needed was its window of opportunity and look what is happening. That is why any kind of vorticity in the NW Caribbean this time of year needs close watching.





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