WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

This is in no way, shape, or form, going to recurve or be steered by the low level winds.

This is going nearly due west through the Philippines, just as has been forecast for the past 4 days

Time will tell.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is in no way, shape, or form, going to recurve or be steered by the low level winds.

This is going nearly due west through the Philippines, just as has been forecast for the past 4 days

By recurve he means it would move southwest over the Philippines.

[dexterlabio]

By recurve he means it would move southwest over the Philippines.

Ozonepete meant southwesterly low-level winds...means steering winds from the southwest which might push the storm to the northeast...


Though I really really like the sharp recurve scenario to happen, I think the chance of it happening is quite slim...


Btw I am watching the local news and weather in Samar and Leyte (and even Bicol region) is quickly deteriorating. Strong wind gusts reported in Eastern Samar for the past hours.

[NDG]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

By recurve he means it would move southwest over the Philippines.

Ozonepete meant southwesterly low-level winds...means steering winds from the southwest which might push the storm to the northeast...


Though I really really like the sharp recurve scenario to happen, I think the chance of it happening is quite slim...


Btw I am watching the local news and weather in Samar and Leyte (and even Bicol region) is quickly deteriorating. Strong wind gusts reported in Eastern Samar for the past hours.

Oh, yeah. I think that is very, very unlikely despite the fact that I really want a fishie..

[ozonepete]

So where do you think the first landfall will be?

And how strong the winds would be in Cebu City?

Here's the rough path I think it will take. Just my forecast, ok? Anyway, if my track holds up, and this landfalls near Tabaco, and it has a strength of roughly 80-90 knots as it passes north of you, you will get 30-40 mph sustained winds with gusts to 60 or 70 mph. If the JTWC track, which is a little south of mine and thus closer to you, holds up, then you could get 40-50 mph sustained with gusts 70-80 mph I would think.

Some forecasters here say it's going due west which is much different and I don't want to comment on their forecasts since I haven't run the numbers for those paths. They can tell you what winds they think you'll get if their forecasts hold up.

[ozonepete]

By recurve he means it would move southwest over the Philippines.

Ozonepete meant southwesterly low-level winds...means steering winds from the southwest which might push the storm to the northeast...


Though I really really like the sharp recurve scenario to happen, I think the chance of it happening is quite slim...


Btw I am watching the local news and weather in Samar and Leyte (and even Bicol region) is quickly deteriorating. Strong wind gusts reported in Eastern Samar for the past hours.

Yes that's what I meant. And yes it is not likely. Just something we would love to see happen.

[NDG]

[dexterlabio]

At this rate, this could be just as strong (or a bit stronger) as Rammasun when it hit the Philippines.

[oaba09]

At this rate, this could be just as strong (or a bit stronger) as Rammasun when it hit the Philippines.

JTWC's latest track actually reminds me of ranmasun......

[ozonepete]

At this rate, this could be just as strong (or a bit stronger) as Rammasun when it hit the Philippines.

JTWC's latest track actually reminds me of ranmasun......

Sure seems like it's going very close to Manila...

[oaba09]

At this rate, this could be just as strong (or a bit stronger) as Rammasun when it hit the Philippines.

JTWC's latest track actually reminds me of ranmasun......

Sure seems like it's going very close to Manila...

What do you think can cause the more polewards track that JTWC is forecasting?
JMA seems to still be sticking with their westwards track.

[gatorcane]

Looks to be moving west, maybe even hinting at a hair south of west:

[NDG]

It seems to me that during the past several hours it has been on an almost due west heading.

[dexterlabio]

Yeah, due west for the past 6 hours...and the last few frames indicate a south of west movement.

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA forecast has Hagupit making landfall tomorrow morning (Manila time) in Samar....well this is moving at a snail's pace but it looks like it's picking up speed to make it in the evening...

[ozonepete]

Some recent quotes from here:

"Looks to be moving west, maybe even hinting at a hair south of west:"

"It seems to me that during the past several hours it has been on an almost due west heading."

"Yeah, due west for the past 6 hours...and the last few frames indicate a south of west movement."


Wobble watching, lol.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some recent quotes from here:

"Looks to be moving west, maybe even hinting at a hair south of west:"

"It seems to me that during the past several hours it has been on an almost due west heading."

"Yeah, due west for the past 6 hours...and the last few frames indicate a south of west movement."


Wobble watching, lol.

Not wobble watching, that's what JMA, ECMWF and GFS consistently showing since yesterday.

[ozonepete]

Sure seems like it's going very close to Manila...

What do you think can cause the more polewards track that JTWC is forecasting?
JMA seems to still be sticking with their westwards track.

JMA and JTWC have completely separate staffs that have some different ideas about how to forecast typhoons. That's healthy imho. The difference between their tracks isn't that great so it doesn't bother me personally. But I think that the reason JMA is sticking to an almost pure westward track is probably because they like the "KING EURO NAIL" better than JTWC does.

[ozonepete]

Some recent quotes from here:

"Looks to be moving west, maybe even hinting at a hair south of west:"

"It seems to me that during the past several hours it has been on an almost due west heading."

"Yeah, due west for the past 6 hours...and the last few frames indicate a south of west movement."


Wobble watching, lol.

Not wobble watching, that's what JMA, ECMWF and GFS consistently showing since yesterday.

That wasn't meant to be negative. It refers to how we watch so closely that every wobble in the forward direction seems to indicate the proper direction. It is a friendly joke among all of here on Storm2k. Not meant to be frivolous. I am wobble watching too. And love it.