ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

BREAKING NEWS


Very sad news for the Northern Leewards

Given our journalists of RCI, should be really confirmed during the next hours... it's not 3 people but looks like 16 people are missing in sea in both islands:(
We're waiting for a confirmation of this info, i will keep your informed if i've more.

Site of our local radio: http://www.rci.fm/Gonzalo-3-portes-disp ... _dvke2EK00

The latest news said that 16 are missing!

[Gustywind]

Here are some videos of TS Gonzalo hitting Antigua.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLGm6pUPbJk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWnAKMdWZDs

[Gustywind]

Latest news ... reports of some houses without roofs, boats missing, and at least 15 people missing who were on their boats. Moreover looks like it's difficult to call in those islands.
More to come, if i've more infos...

Regards

Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Here are some videos of TS Gonzalo hitting Antigua.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLGm6pUPbJk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWnAKMdWZDs

Another one showing how the wind was blowing very nicely...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ18llA8ZIk

[Gustywind]

From SSD...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1145 UTC 20.0N 64.6W T4.5/4.5 GONZALO
14/0545 UTC 18.9N 63.8W T4.5/4.5 GONZALO
13/2345 UTC 18.2N 63.2W T3.5/3.5 GONZALO

[Gustywind]

Here is the latest and full weather forecast from Meteo-France Guadeloupe for the Northern Leewards Islands.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf ( french version).

Grey code for the Northern Leewards Islands

INDIVIDUAL RECOMMENDED BEHAVIOUR MEASURES BY THE PREFECTURE:

VIGILANCE GREY HURRICANE


GMI1: To keep abreast of the situation of the consequences of the passage of the phenomenon on the island;

GMI2: Be careful when leaving the place where you were housed;

GMI3: Try a balance of the damage around your home while remaining very cautious:

(1) strengthen and repair your home without taking a risk;

(2) stay away from low points, rivers and steep slopes;

(3) clear the surroundings of your home and clearing the surrounding area carefully;

(4) do not touch the electric and telephone wires broken and fallen to the ground.

(5) assist neighbours and prevent relief in case of need;

GMI4: Does not interfere with rescue teams, and avoid unnecessary trips;

GMI5: Do not clutter the telephone network except emergency;

GMI6: Do not cross gullies or ditches flooded as well as the edges of watercourses.

GMI7: Check the quality of the water before consumption as well as the food from the refrigerator;


Monitoring VIGILANCE No. 10 bulletin

for the Northern Islands: Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 6AM:04, 10:04 UTC

Episode No. 10 - IN

Level of vigilance: grey

Danger: Hurricane

Validity:

Start of event: current.

Estimated end: Tuesday 14/10/14 to 5 PM

Current situation:

Category 2 GONZALO Hurricane

Position estimated 10-14-09 UTC 2014: 19.6 N 64.4 W - Distance from Saint - Martin at the centre of

the phenomenon: 220 km - Saint-Barthélemy: 253 km

Displacement: Northwest 315 degrees to 20 km/h - pressure at the center: 974 hPa

1 mn wind average: 95 knots gusting wind max: 115 knots

Forecasts:

Hurricane 'Gonzalo' now category 2, continues to move away to the Northwest and do not impact our islands.

Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy are out of the TS conditions since the middle of night conditions.

The wind from southwest and to the south is significantly attenuated between 30 and 50 km/h in average wind, and 50 to 70 km/h

in gusts. It falls down at 20 km/h on average by the evening.

Intense precipitation do not affect us. Nevertheless, showers and tstorms sometimes intensive, can still reach the two islands during the day.

The sea is depreciated, it remains strong with waves of 2 m 50 this morning. Depreciation shall continue during the day, with waves lowering around 1 m 50 in the evening.


Observed data:


Saint-Barthélemy (at the weather station):

Maximum winds between 3 PM and 7 PM, average wind at 122 km/h and gusts of 204 km/h

Between 01 AM and 3 AM, average wind 34 km/h, gusts 60 km/h.

Between 03 AM 04 AM, average wind 39 km/h, gusts 76 km/h.

Between 04 AM and 5 AM, average wind 37 km/h, gusts 56 km/h.

At Saint-Martin Grand - Case:

Between 6 PM and 7 PM, average wind 88 km/h, gusts 151 km/h.

No data available since 8 PM. Between 9 PM and 10 PM, average wind estimated at 130 km/h, gusts to

160 km/h.

Accumulation of rain in 3 hours (between 5 PM and 8 PM): 74 mm.

Sea: waves estimated at 4 meters 50-6 meters at the height of the episode between 5 PM and 11 PM.

Next bulletin: Tuesday, October 2 PM, 16 UTC.

[supercane4867]

Impressive structure

[supercane4867]

Eye clearing out

[SeGaBob]

Looks pretty good right now... I'll guess a peak of 140 mph. I'm hoping it doesn't hit Bermuda either way.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

The chance of Gonzalo not hitting Bermuda as a strong hurricane at this point is slim to none

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 141156
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN....
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon data suggests southerly wind shear is still tilting the vortex.

[SeGaBob]

I feel if the eye could clear out this could bomb out...


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Forum is dead considering we're well on the way to having the strongest storm of 2014...I have to admit I wouldn't be interested either if it wasn't for the forecasted peak.

[Gustywind]

Here is the news i was related this morning on our local radio RCI (Radio Carib International). Looks like all the sources are not much clear about the exact number of people missing. But both have clearly identified that people are missing on the Northern Leewards Islands.

From our local and daily newspaper "France-Antilles"...
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx


Cyclone Gonzalo: no news of 4 people, in addition to the 3 missing

The authorities of the islands of Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin, swept away by cyclone Gonzalo tonight, are "no news" of four persons, in addition to three missing, announced on Tuesday the Minister of overseas, George Pau-Langevin. Fourteen people, including four "which there is absolutely no news", "subject to relief operations" at sea, offshore two islands in the North of the Caribbean, she said at a press conference at his Ministry in Paris. "We are a little concerned by what (...)" with regard to"these four people, the Minister said. The contact could be 'settled' with ten others. A person injured and stranded on a reef must also be rescued, she said.
Three people are already and already missing, "a man fell from his boat to Saint-Martin and two people who were trying to reach a boat to Saint-Barthélemy", for which "searches were impossible", had made it clear earlier in the day prefecture of Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin.
There is however a priori no ground casualties.
Weather France after leaving Saint-Barthélemy, above which the eye of the storm passed, and Saint-Martin, Gonzalo "continued towards the Northwest at a speed of 20 km/h and should further strengthen in the next few hours to reach the stage of hurricane of category 3 within 36 hours".
The balance of the damage will be prepared in the next few hours, said Ms. George Pau-Langevin. The armed forces and means of the nearby islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique have been mobilized, and all will be implemented to "restore communications".
The State will initiate "the recognition of the natural state of disaster" and the "Emergency Fund" of the Ministry of it overseas will be put to work, she added.
The Minister will call in the day parliamentarians and leaders of local on-site to assess the needs and see "how to driving national solidarity".
The Minister, who had to go to Guadeloupe next week, will visit the Islands on this occasion, unless "the situation requires (it) go on the spot" earlier.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Gonzalo looks alright in visible, however, it needs some more work on its convection on the western periphery.

[SeGaBob]

Now forecast to peak at 140 mph as of 11am...

[tolakram]

Live visible, really putting on burst at the moment.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

[CrazyC83]

Discussion mentioned a SFMR of 99 kt. If it strengthens no more (unlikely) they might give it a post-analysis intensity of 100 kt.

This could be the strongest storm since 2010 at this rate...

[supercane4867]

Recon extrap pressure down to 968mb

[tatertawt24]

Live visible, really putting on burst at the moment.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

Hot towers in the eyewall at 14:15 UTC.