ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MaineWeatherNut]

052300 1914N 06357W 6957 03005 9883 +110 +110 087097 100 085 013 00

100kt flight level wind

052500 1910N 06354W 6946 02973 9754 +152 +079 085034 044 089 004 03

975.4 mb pressure

[AJC3]

A little off topic but eventually it will effect Gonzalo. I don't know if I can recall a frontal system being so straight up and down (south to north).

Surface cold fronts will tend to be oriented more meridionally (N-S) if the parent 500 MB trough axis is negatively tilted, or the trough cuts off into a closed low.

If you didn't know this already, in the NHEM, a mid or upper trough is referred to as being "negatively tilted" when its axis slopes east of due southward (or west of due northward, depending on your frame of reference). If the axis slopes west of due southward, then it is positively tilted, and if it's axis is north-south, it is considered "neutrally tilted".

[Hammy]

Looks like it could be a Cat 2 already, and they haven't even sampled the NE quad yet.

[CrazyC83]

That data supports a 90 kt intensity...I think that we might see a Special Advisory.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Looks like the lowest pressure is now between 970 and 971

[CrazyC83]

It seems the intermediate advisory is a bit late. I think a special advisory may be forthcoming to replace it.

[MaineWeatherNut]

2:00 AM AST Tue Oct 14
Location: 19.1°N 64.0°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[Hammy]

Very good thing this went north of the track, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands were spared from a direct hit from a strengthening hurricane.

[Hammy]

Plane not finding any higher winds (if anything very slightly lower) than earlier, so it looks like it's leveled off temporarily. There are a couple small dry slots in the southern half of the circulation, just outside the eyewall, possibly a result of mid-level shear. Would not be surprised to see this steady for the next few hours, then ramp up again during the afternoon. Either way, odd to see such a gap between flight level and surface winds.

[beoumont]

Talking about dry air, when the flight level wind was 136 mph???

[beoumont]

Talking about dry air, when the flight level wind was very recently 136 mph???

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From the forecast:
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.1N 68.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

Wow.

Other than that, EYE SEE YOU!

[bahamaswx]

Satellite appearance hasn't improved at all imo over the past several hours. If anything, he's now starting to look a bit more ragged.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 140854
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS....
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

[adam0983]

It was a wild night at my hotel in St. Martin but we were very lucky. Other than having some water in my room we were able to keep power,water and internet. The damage I see from window this morning is trees down some signs down and some roof damage. This was the first time I experienced a Hurricane in the Caribbean compared to being in South Florida. It was a much different experience because the winds felts stronger due to the mountains Does anyone think this will be a catergory 4 Hurricane when it comes near Bermuda.

[Gustywind]

It was a wild night at my hotel in St. Martin but we were very lucky. Other than having some water in my room we were able to keep power,water and internet. The damage I see from window this morning is trees down some signs down and some roof damage. This was the first time I experienced a Hurricane in the Caribbean compared to being in South Florida. It was a much different experience because the winds felts stronger due to the mountains Does anyone think this will be a catergory 4 Hurricane when it comes near Bermuda.

Thanks for that report, glad to see that you're ok! I wish you a good recovery from that wild night.

[Gustywind]

Adam0983, given our journalists of RCI Guadeloupe, looks like 3 people are missing in sea in both islands. Moreover, numerous trees are down in the roads. If i've more i will keep your informed .

[NDG]

Wow, I guess Gonzalo is a sign of what is to expect in the Atlantic Basin next season. Amazing how this area has been the sweet spot this season where storms have become stronger than forecasted. Compared to the last 2 seasons when there was really no spot like this in the entire Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested, here is a recap of Gonzalo trip's in Guadeloupe.

Good news for Guadeloupe, back to green code meaning no threats in terms strong showers and tstorms !
The is back and all is normal here. Guadeloupe have been spared by Gonzalo, thanks Lord. But i hope really that the Northern Leewards is not much impacted even seems that they have been hit hard .

Be courageous Msbee and all the Leewardians, things will improve, keep the faith!

Here are some datas of Gonzalo during its trip on Guadeloupe showing clearly that nothing bad happens on the butterfly island.

Source Meteo-France Guadeloupe: http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf (french version).


Regards

Gustywind

Bulletin of tracking No. 17 for Guadeloupe

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 05 56 AM, 09:56 UTC

Episode n ° 14-GD

Completed event

Level of vigilance: return to green


Current situation:

Hurricane "Gonzalo" has reached category 2 at 2 AM local while moving away from the Northern Islands.

Estimated 2014-10-14 09 UTC position (05 AM): 19.6 ° N and 64.4 ° W.

Distance from the center of the phenomenon: 470 km north-west of Guadeloupe.

Mouvement: Northwest, at 315 degrees at 20 km/h.

The central pressure: 974 hPa.

The lines of showers that wrap around the hurricane in a South stream don't represent a

particular danger for Guadeloupe. Yellow vigilance can therefore be lifted.

Data observed during the episode:

Monday morning, between 05AM and 06 AM, the wind blew at la Désirade at 76 km/h on average with a

gust at 93 km/h. Elsewhere, the gusts did not exceed 54 km/h.

Monday morning, between 03 AM and 09AM, the most significant rainfall reached 20 to

60 millimeters on the localities between Deshaies, Moule, Saint-François, Goyave and Saint-Claude.

There was for example over these 6 hours:

50.7 mm in Pointe-Noire Bellevue,

41.5 mm at Moule Montplaisir

37 mm at Moule Laureal,

31.5 mm at Goyave Christophe,

30 mm at Sainte-Anne Courcelles,

29.3 mm at Raizet Abymes.

[Gustywind]

Wow, I guess Gonzalo is a sign of what is to expect in the Atlantic Basin next season. Amazing how this area has been the sweet spot this season where storms have become stronger than forecasted. Compared to the last 2 seasons when there was really no spot like this in the entire Atlantic.

Why do you say next season? NDG the season is not even finished so we have to wait and see a little bit before?no?. Agree with you that this area have been particulary active. Hope that nothing more happens because of the Lesser Antilles don't want more damages with those canes.