ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Here is a high resolution water vapor loop showing the ULL to the east pushing a finger of dry air into 92L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

That probably won't last all the way across the gulf although WXman57 said an early forecast kept the ULL tracking with 92l for several days.

[bamajammer4eva]

Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure
centered over southern Florida just west of Lake Okeechobee
remains poorly organized. By tonight or early Saturday, the low is
expected to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where
upper-level winds are forecast to become even less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. Nevertheless, this weather system
will continue to be closely monitored, and an Air Force Plane will
check the low on Saturday, if necessary. Locally heavy rains
associated with the low will continue over portions of southern
Florida and the Florida Keys today and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

[jlauderdal]

Landfall Update

WEAK SFC LOW MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
1012.3 MB SFC PRESSURE READING AT WEST PALM BEACH AT 5 AM.

Next time a 1012 low hits south florida I will be much better prepared; learned the hard way on 92L

I shouldn't encourage this because I'm a moderator but ... how did your lawn furniture hold up?

strained my back picking up the two twigs that blew in ...it was stormy last night, we usually dont get tstorms at night so that was unusual and yesterday afternoon it was very wet, interesting system that could never get going in our area

thanks for keeping us Floridians in your prayers everyone, it took all the positive vibes to survive landfall this morning ...92L will go in down as the famous Palm Beach storm of 2014


nice we can joke around about a system but the US is so overdue and I know overdue doesnt mean jack in weather but lets face it..someone is going to get it sooner rather than later

[jlauderdal]

If your in Punta Gorda it might come right over you.

brings back haunting memories of hurricane Charley

[Stormcenter]

Looking better organized as it approaches the GOM. IMO

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[baytownwx]

After looking at the vorticity maps, it appears vorticity is better aligned on the southern end of the disturbance. Who knows what will happens once it enters the GOM. Will the original circulation build convection again and be dominant? Or will a new circulation/old one be pulled south where there is more convection? I guess time will tell..,

[PauleinHouston]

While not a big fan of Weather Underground, this is an interesting page showing where 92L is currently. Looks not far from crossing into the Gulf waters...

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=26.87729&lon=-80.90246&zoom=8&type=lightmap&units=english&eyedropper=0&hur=0&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=50&rad.opa=55&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.noc=1&rad.stm=0&sat=0&cams=0&undefined=0

[BigA]

After looking at the vorticity maps, it appears vorticity is better aligned on the southern end of the disturbance. Who knows what will happens once it enters the GOM. Will the original circulation build convection again and be dominant? Or will a new circulation/old one be pulled south where there is more convection? I guess time will tell..,

I don't think the vorticity maps (such as the CIMMS Wisconsin map) are terrifically accurate when it comes to the exact placement of a vorticity maximum. I'm not certain at what resolution they are plotted.

[Senobia]

Okay, well - while I'm a firm believer in there's no definitive answer to where a system will go until it makes landfall, I just really need to know what this system is going to do and where it will end up and what it will be when it gets there. I'm tired of watching. I'm tired of waiting. I'm tired of speculating.

If someone could just tell me those things with absolution, I would appreciate it ever so much.

Thanks.










Yes, this post is a joke.

Sort of.

Ahem.

[TheStormExpert]

Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure
centered over southern Florida just west of Lake Okeechobee
remains poorly organized. By tonight or early Saturday, the low is
expected to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where
upper-level winds are forecast to become even less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. Nevertheless, this weather system
will continue to be closely monitored, and an Air Force Plane will
check the low on Saturday, if necessary. Locally heavy rains
associated with the low will continue over portions of southern
Florida and the Florida Keys today and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

So conditions are now expected to be unfavorable in the Gulf? Geez! It must be really hard to come across ideal conditions in the Atlantic these days.

[ronjon]

Looking better organized as it approaches the GOM. IMO

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Yeah I think the center's actually tightened up today crossing land. Let's see what happens in the SE GOM. it needs to rebuild core covection which will take a while.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking better organized as it approaches the GOM. IMO

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Yeah I think the center's actually tightened up today crossing land. Let's see what happens in the SE GOM. it needs to rebuild core covection which will take a while.

The NHC begs to differ! "Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure centered over southern Florida just west of Lake Okeechobee
remains poorly organized."

[Senobia]

A small area of low pressure over South Florida (Invest 92L) is bringing heavy rains to South Florida and the waters of the Florida Straits, but Miami radar and satellite loops show that this activity is less organized than on Thursday. Strong upper level winds out of the north-northeast are creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and the atmosphere is moderately dry to the north, interfering with development. While the circulation center of 92L is over land, development into a tropical depression is unlikely, but once the current westward 5 - 10 mph motion of 92L carries it over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, development odds will increase. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F) over the Eastern Gulf, but the presence of dry air and high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should keep any development slow. As of Friday morning, rainfall amounts from 92L were mostly below 1" over South Florida, but the disturbance will be capable of dumping additional rains of 1 - 3" over the area through Saturday. Heavy rains from 92L will begin affecting Texas and the Mexican coast south of the Texas border on Monday, with the center of 92L likely to move ashore over Texas on Monday evening or Tuesday morning. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 92L over the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development odds of 20% and 40%, respectively. I put these odds higher, at 30% and 50%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 92L on Saturday afternoon.

J. Masters' Blog

[tropicwatch]

The wind shear doesn't look to be too unreasonable yet.

[tropicwatch]

I believe the COC is close to Ft. Myers now.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=30.15654945&lon=-85.64855957&zoom=8&pin=Panama%20City%2c%20FL&rad=1&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0

[TheStormExpert]

Shear shouldn't be problematic in the short term. Wonder why the NHC suddenly changed their thinking on that?

[tropicwatch]

It appears that the convection is building closer to the COC and starting to wrap around.

[Sanibel]

Thundering and gusty here. As soon as that band hit the Gulf it flared right up.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like it may still be getting blown off to the south by that loop above with nothing north of the 'center' IMO. Also note the ULL E of FL is still following 92L

[jlauderdal]

Thundering and gusty here. As soon as that band hit the Gulf it flared right up.

nobody south of orlando was spared by its wrath

center is intact, maybe it finds better conditions to the west then it did in our area but even that doesnt seem likely