ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[underthwx]

Good morning all..what type of weather can we expect from 92l in my neck of the woods Port?..

[andrewp23]

Good morning all..what type of weather can we expect from 92l in my neck of the woods Port?..

Way too far away to tell. We will know better in 3 or 4 days and even then things could be much different.

[Rgv20]

Have not been paying much attention to 92L but I'm starting to get a bit intrigued by it..

[Tireman4]

Have not been paying much attention to 92L but I'm starting to get a bit intrigued by it..

Yeah me either. Not saying I am ignoring it, but just not..ehhh...LOL

[tolakram]

Live visible, just moved over Lake O.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[Tireman4]

You know what. As far as 92L is concerned, if Wxman 57 tells me to be concerned, I will be. I have heard nothing from the Great Lord of Summer..yet...

[ronyan]

It's still much too early to say, but here is SE TX we know how fast these can form in the Gulf and threaten us this time of year. Back in 2002 a storm with the name Fay hit here and it rained 6-7" in one hour in Lake Jackson. This is one to keep an eye on.

It's unrelated but the 6 year anniversary of Ike is tomorrow.

[tropicwatch]

It could be an optical illusion but it appears the COC is becoming better organized.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

[Sanibel]

Probably tightening with land interaction. It should progressively start feeling the heat of the Gulf waters over today.


The Naples exit model majority was wrong.

[Javlin]

Live visible, just moved over Lake O.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Looking at that sat and the low stays intact as it touches the GOM about 5-6Pm cdt COULD be a bit disconcerting a wait and see?

[TheStormExpert]

The fact that S. FL (especially SW FL) is a basically swampland explains why it may try to organize some over land. I recall six years ago TS Fay(2008) strengthened some over Lake O due to it's warm waters. This also could as well have a shot at becoming TS Fay, what a coincidence!

[tropicwatch]

Windy on Lake O today.


Lake Oke West End

Station ID: ML005

Lat: 26.96 Lon: -80.94 Elev: 13 ft

77 °

Feels Like 77° F
20 mph
Wind From SE
Gusts 24 mph
Dew Point: 75° F
Humidity: 91 %
Precip Rate: - in/hr
Precip Accum: - in
Pressure: 29.97 in
Visibility: - mi

[TheStormExpert]

Live visible, just moved over Lake O.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Looking at that sat and the low stays intact as it touches the GOM about 5-6Pm cdt COULD be a bit disconcerting a wait and see?

I expect this to reach the Gulf waters by late afternoon/early evening, as soon as 4pm IMO.

[Javlin]

The fact that S. FL (especially SW FL) is a basically swampland explains why it may try to organize some over land. I recall six years ago TS Fay(2008) strengthened some over Lake O due to it's warm waters. This also could as well have a shot at becoming TS Fay, what a coincidence!

and remember Katrina over the Everglades up to 80 or 85 an increase of 5mph over land

[TheStormExpert]

Have not been paying much attention to 92L but I'm starting to get a bit intrigued by it..

If this was say two seasons ago I would be more concerned than I already am since every shot it seems that something has at becoming a TC it is disrupted by dry air, shear, or both. Still would keep a weary eye just in case it finds a sweet spot like Hurricane Arthur did, besides those GoM waters are about 90°F and are the warmest in the Atlantic basin, it wouldn't take much to cause something to set off.

[bella_may]

Shear is really low. Nothing to hinder development once it enters the gulf

[tolakram]

Have not been paying much attention to 92L but I'm starting to get a bit intrigued by it..

If this was say two seasons ago I would be more concerned than I already am since every shot it seems that something has at becoming a TC it is disrupted by dry air, shear, or both. Still would keep a weary eye just in case it finds a sweet spot like Hurricane Arthur did, besides those GoM waters are about 90°F and are the warmest in the Atlantic basin, it wouldn't take much to cause something to set off.

Not quite 90. Generally around 86F with some pockets of 88F.



source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/

[hurrtracker79]

Wind shear may be low right now, but by SUN the GFS/NAM are forecasting 200 mb NNE winds of 30-40 knots over the E Gulf which would hinder any short term redevelopment that may occur on SAT. The atmosphere is fluid, not static.

[Sanibel]

There's a laminar breeze here from the North and puffy low level clouds with dark bases. Bright clear blue sky above that lower deck.

[tropicwatch]

If your in Punta Gorda it might come right over you.