WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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CrazyC83
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#521 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:40 am

I'd go with 115 kt right now given the constraints and structural look that is better than anything before first landfall.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#522 Postby vrif » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:44 am

16Z radar

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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#523 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:12 pm

TXPQ28 KNES 171529
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 09W (RAMMASUN)

B. 17/1432Z

C. 18.0N

D. 113.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR DT VALUE DO DUE INCORRECT EYE NUMBER VALUE. OW
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG FOR AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 AND SURROUNDED BY A RING
OF B FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF PLUS 0.5. THE DT=5.5. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


I can't wait to see the visible...
Image
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#524 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:17 pm

Not looking good. Intense convection wrapped completely at the end of the loop :uarrow: More strengthening likely until landfall...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#525 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:20 pm

More than likely this is already a strong category 4 typhoon. I wish JTWC would do something similiar to NHC when rapid intensification occurs with a special update followed by a full warning instead we have to wait until the next warning where the *peak* would likely be missed...

ADT holding steady at 6.8= 135 knots!

Update:

PGTW now up to 6.0!

TPPN11 PGTW 171519

A. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN)

B. 17/1432Z

C. 18.0N

D. 113.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1028Z 17.2N 114.5E SSMS


SCHALIN
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#526 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:45 pm

Image
making a run at "super"?
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#527 Postby Dave C » Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:31 pm

Looking at that sat. loop it seems to possibly be heading just north of Hainan Island. The way the bay to the north is shaped it would be serious for storm surge. The name of the bay is Kyangchow and two large cities on the north end....Tsamkong and Hsiying.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#528 Postby vrif » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:57 pm

1930Z radar
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#529 Postby vrif » Thu Jul 17, 2014 5:47 pm

First vis of the day (2215Z)

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#530 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 17, 2014 5:58 pm

going to pass near Haikou. Hope the latest west wobble does not continue
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#531 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:01 pm

Up to 125 knots.

09W RAMMASUN 140718 0000 19.1N 112.3E WPAC 125 929
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#532 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:23 pm

Even that might be conservative. Could be a Cat 5 before landfall at this rate.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#533 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:24 pm

Image

125 knots Typhoon Rammasun!
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#534 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:30 pm

6.8 921.4 134.8 6.8 7.2 7.2

ADT at 135 knots RAW up to 7.2 (146 knots)!
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#535 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:38 pm

Tell me again why the most active and most interesting basin has no recon! Those planes would be of great used for studying...

I know budget but it's too bad... :lol:
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#536 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:43 pm

If this becomes a super typhoon, this would be the first and only in the South China Sea since Super Typhoon Ryan and Chanchu.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#537 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:22 pm

7.0 916.3 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.1

Now supports Category 5 strength.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#538 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:56 pm

One of the worst typhoon disasters in Chinese history is shaping up for the island of Hainan and Leizhou Peninsula. If Rammasun intensifies to 140kt, which is not only possible but very probable, it will become the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed over South China Sea.
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#539 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:10 pm

I'd estimate 125 KT winds now. Wherever the eye strikes will be flattened by either the wind or tidal surge
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Re:

#540 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:14 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:If this becomes a super typhoon, this would be the first and only in the South China Sea since Super Typhoon Ryan and Chanchu.

I recall Typhoon Marge of 1973 had likely been a super typhoon when it made landfall over Hainan. It was listed as only a Cat.1 in JTWC best track because the lack of satellite and recon data
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