EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Eye clearing out. Cat 4 maybe?

[Aric Dunn]

Why are they not posting their pressure readings

[Yellow Evan]

Why are they not posting their pressure readings

Maybe he has measured anything from it?

[Yellow Evan]

If this had another 12 hours, this would hit upper end Cat 4.

[Sanibel]

Probably hanging on for dear life I would guess.

[Yellow Evan]

Entrance smashed. That pile of furniture is no match for ODILE.

[Aric Dunn]

Eye over cabo now

[Yellow Evan]

ADT on the rise.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2014 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 22:38:31 N Lon : 109:37:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 930.1mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -33.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

[CrazyC83]

I wonder what the landfall intensity will be set at? I would have said 105 kt earlier, but maybe higher now? Leave it at 110 or nudge up to 115?

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder what the landfall intensity will be set at? I would have said 105 kt earlier, but maybe higher now? Leave it at 110 or nudge up to 115?

Def 115.

[CaneCurious]

My parents live at the Hilton Los Cabos where my dad is the GM. My mom was just able to call me and said that she was in a closet. She said that it sounds like the hotel is being ripped apart. She went through Hurricane Betsy as a child and I don't think that even comes close to what she feeling now. I am terrified for them.

[Yellow Evan]

My parents live at the Hilton Los Cabos where my dad is the GM. My mom was just able to call me and said that she was in a closet. She said that it sounds like the hotel is being ripped apart. She went through Hurricane Betsy as a child and I don't think that even comes close to what she feeling now. I am terrified for them.

Cabo San Lucas or San Jose Del Cabo. The one in CSL is not where you wanna be for a hurricane. Well, at least she was able to get in touch with you.

[supercane4867]

Landfall confirmed?

[Alyono]

looks like we have landfall. I'd say winds around 105 kts. Could be convinced of 110 kts, however

[Yellow Evan]

Landfall confirmed?

Not yet IMO. One more frame and it should be onshore.

[supercane4867]

I wonder what the landfall intensity will be set at? I would have said 105 kt earlier, but maybe higher now? Leave it at 110 or nudge up to 115?

Def 115.

I don't think NHC will nudge it up unless we get some impressive surface observations

[CrazyC83]

Looks like 0430Z will be landfall time, due to satellite frame issues.

[Sanibel]

Terrifying donut consolidation.

[Alyono]

likely will see hurricane winds into La Paz within the hour

[Yellow Evan]

When was the last time a hurricane like this was intensifying at landfall in a chaseable area in the NHC AOR? I'd say Carlotta 12.