CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

I'll give it this much, the convection is deeper now than earlier

the shear vector is changing. The outflow is really expanding west of the center. Looks like the shear is already dropping off big time

[Kingarabian]

First time I see a hurricane look so bad on AVN imagery yet look really good on visible imagery and microwave imagery.

[Yellow Evan]

First time I see a hurricane look so bad on AVN imagery yet look really good on visible imagery and microwave imagery.

Epsilon?

Recon is gonna be very interesting.

[Alyono]

during the transition from annular to banding, the sat appearance can look downright ugly

We are seeing the transition now

[Yellow Evan]

Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
Issued at 200 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014
SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 16.6N 140.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 105 MPH...170 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 290 degrees AT 13 MPH...15 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.

[supercane4867]

Dry air still hurts

[Kingarabian]

Disrupted core from the west and the south, but nowhere as bad as I thought.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with 75-85 knts now. Maybe a little higher.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA33 PHFO 052357
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
200 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014

...ISELLE ON A WEAKENING TREND BUT STILL MOVING TOWARD HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 140.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL ISLANDS
LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC FOR YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.8 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AS ISELLE APPROACHES THE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...170 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII ON THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING DAMAGING BY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE WILL REACH THE BIG
ISLAND THURSDAY AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[cycloneye]

85kts.

EP, 09, 2014080600, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1409W, 85, 977, HU

[somethingfunny]

The most interesting thing in that intermediate advisory to me is that Iselle's forward speed increased from 9 to 13mph in just 3 hours.

[supercane4867]

TXPN23 KNES 052348
TCSCNP

A. 09E (ISELLE)

B. 05/2330Z

C. 16.5N

D. 140.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24RS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THOUGH EIR SHOWS A RAPIDLY FILLING AND ELONGATING EYE THE
COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE SW SIDE ARE CIRRUS AND ACTUALLY CROSS THE CENTER
OF THE CIRCULATION CLEARLY SEEN IN VISIBLE LOOP. AS SUCH EYE METHOD
IS NOT USED AND .9 BANDING IS MEASURED ON VISIBLE FOR DT OF 3.5...THIS
IS REJECTED GIVEN MULTIPLE METHOD CHOICES WITH DIFFERENT DT VALUES.
MET IS RAPID WEAKENING TREND BUT 4.5...WHICH IS TOO HIGH AND REJECTED.
PT IS 4.0 AND IS THE FT. CI IS HELD AT 5.0 PER WEAKENING RULES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

05/1843Z 16.2N 139.9W AMSU
05/1936Z 16.2N 140.0W AMSU
05/2242Z 16.4N 140.7W AMSU

[Alyono]

seems to be evolving much like Isabel did back in 2003 when it transitioned from Annular to banding structure

Isabel also had one ugly sat appearance after the transition, but the aircraft winds were quite high

[Kingarabian]

seems to be evolving much like Isabel did back in 2003 when it transitioned from Annular to banding structure

Isabel also had one ugly sat appearance after the transition, but the aircraft winds were quite high

[JonathanBelles]

Post on Bertha, Iselle, and Julio: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/05/be ... l-systems/

[somethingfunny]

Not looking good....when is the recon mission?

[Alyono]

great montage of Isabel... this looks just like Isabel did when it looked its worst when it transitioned from annular to banding

[Yellow Evan]

Based on recon, it looks like a TS wind field may have to be expanded.

[supercane]

WTPA33 PHFO 060252
TCPCP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014

...ISELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT STILL MOVING TOWARD HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 141.6W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

[supercane4867]

Recon nearing the eyewall