ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

They are likely going to give it a little longer till some more persistent convection can develop..

[Weatherboy1]

Well, wasn't 96 originally the product of two areas of disturbed weather? (NHC maps had one in orange and one in yellow on the outlook a day or two ago). Would it make sense that those same disturbances are still doing battle to see which one becomes the "Alpha male" so to speak? LOL

[SFLcane]

Aric was wondering why you weren't on. What's ur take on the persistence from the HWRF. As 12z the Canadian is back west also. Very tricky forecast once near Bahamas.

[Hammy]

could the competing vortices be the reason for the lack of convection, or is there more dry air moving in?

[Evil Jeremy]

This might be the little engine that could? lol jk it should develop, but million dollar question is....where does it go....

I've created a foolproof method of determining where 96L will end up: http://bit.ly/96LWheel

[Hurricaneman]

Honestly if the ridge doesn't build back in then maybe something similar to Gert in 1981 if some ridging does build back in the maybe something similar to Frances in 2004 thats really going to be the question as of right now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

The system seems better organized now than it did early this morning. I wonder if DMAX tonight is what it will need for the convection to burst?

I think the mid-level dry air is holding it back some.

[deltadog03]

This might be the little engine that could? lol jk it should develop, but million dollar question is....where does it go....

I've created a foolproof method of determining where 96L will end up: http://bit.ly/96LWheel

LOL

[ronjon]

Darn thing does have pretty massive circulation though. Dry air is definitely slowing development.

[Weatherboy1]

This might be the little engine that could? lol jk it should develop, but million dollar question is....where does it go....

I've created a foolproof method of determining where 96L will end up: http://bit.ly/96LWheel

Uh oh ... I got Florida! LOL

[Aric Dunn]

Aric was wondering why you weren't on. What's ur take on the persistence from the HWRF. As 12z the Canadian is back west also. Very tricky forecast once near Bahamas.

A number of things could be the issue.. first and foremost the lack of a well defined center combined with a very large Gyre are likely causing the models to flip flop. Though there does appear to be a center trying to consolidate but with out persistent convection the likelihood of another Vort max taking over at any point where deep convection develops is quite possible. Very large and tilted circulation patterns like this often cause issues. You can get a large difference in the dynamical models from the Global models being that the Dynamical models have higher resolution and are trying to essentially track a "center" which depending on where that particular model is initialized can lead to large differences in the medium and long range vs the Global models that are basically tracking the system as a whole.

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the heading right now the center will miss all the islands and the farther east the turn the more likely it seems that the recurve might get retarded and a stall happens which would make for headaches all up and down the east coast as there would be no way to know where it would go from a stall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Andrew]

Circulation itself looks quite healthy, just needs convection and consolidation. I stick by my prediction from earlier.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

Updated for reconnaissance information

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined. In addition, the
associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours.
The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds on the northeast side of the low. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development during the next
day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still
form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph
across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola
could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the
Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake

[gatorcane]

Hey Cycloneye - one thing looks pretty certain - a lot of RAIN looks to be headed your way which is good news for the drought situation there.

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye - one thing looks pretty certain - a lot of RAIN looks to be headed your way which is good news for the drought situation there.

Certainly,that is the good part about this. Today the U.S Monitor added more areas to the moderate drought. 4-6 inches are expected here.

[ObsessedMiami]

This might be the little engine that could? lol jk it should develop, but million dollar question is....where does it go....

I've created a foolproof method of determining where 96L will end up: http://bit.ly/96LWheel

Uh oh ... I got Florida! LOL

Ha! Me too. Foolproof proof

[Hurricane_Luis]

This might be the little engine that could? lol jk it should develop, but million dollar question is....where does it go....

I've created a foolproof method of determining where 96L will end up: http://bit.ly/96LWheel

I got dissipated...Its a sign!!!!!

[Frank2]

In this loop 96L is seen moving rapidly and appears more like a wave (IMO):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[cycloneye]

For those members who may want to see radars and web cams from different islands,you can visit the First post of the Caribbean-Central America Weather thread.