CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

That rainband feature seems to be weakening.

[Kingarabian]

That rainband feature seems to be weakening.

So going annular once more is a possibility?

[Yellow Evan]

That rainband feature seems to be weakening.

So going annular once more is a possibility?

I would not count on it.

[Alyono]

I'd say it is possible given that there will be another 36 hours of near zero shear

[supercane4867]

That rainband feature seems to be weakening.

The low level structure and eyewall are fully intact despite less impressive satellite presentation

[Yellow Evan]

Not bad. Probs a solid C2.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd say it is possible given that there will be another 36 hours of near zero shear

Accoridng to the SHIPS, modest shear is still expcted another 6-12 hours before relaxing till almost landfall.

[RL3AO]

Watches Issued

WTPA23 PHFO 052039
TCMCP3
HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL ISLANDS
BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 140.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 140.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.8N 142.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.4N 145.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.1N 148.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 151.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.3N 157.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 163.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 140.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Yellow Evan]

I would have issued a Hurricane Watch actually.

[RL3AO]

If you want to get the advisories as soon as they are available, you are better of using this. Its well known the CPHC website...well sucks.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... cm.cp3.txt

[Yellow Evan]

If you want to get the advisories as soon as they are available, you are better of using this. Its well known the CPHC website...well sucks.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... cm.cp3.txt

Does it also have the discussions?

[supercane4867]

The detailed advisory information from CPHC always come out way slower than NHC

[Kingarabian]

I'm just constantly refreshing the CPHC webpage.

[RL3AO]

If you want to get the advisories as soon as they are available, you are better of using this. Its well known the CPHC website...well sucks.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... cm.cp3.txt

Does it also have the discussions?

Just came out

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... cd.cp3.txt

EDIT: Seems to be incomplete.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm just constantly refreshing the CPHC webpage.

I wouldn't expect it to come out for another 10-15 mins.

Genevieve's products aren't even out.

[WeatherGuesser]

Interesting to see so many members that usually just post on Atlantic storms posting on this storms topic since it'll probably affect the Hawaiian Islands.

That always happens when there's a potential landfall on a US state.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA43 PHFO 052104
TCDCP3

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 05 2014

ISELLE/S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE SYSTEM IS LOSING ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE IN THE
FACE OF 15 TO 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE EYE IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY RAGGED...AND SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
INDICATED A DETERIORATION OF THE EYE WALL IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.0 TO 5.5...AND WITH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
SHOWING CONTINUED DEGRADATION SINCE FIX TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 95 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ISELLE NEAR
06/0600Z TO PROVIDE GROUND TRUTH...WHILE THE NOAA G-IV IS ALREADY
SAMPLING THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT TO AID WITH MODEL INITIALIZATION.

WHILE ISELLE HAD BEEN MOVING DUE WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...
RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF ISELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ACCELERATING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN
THE SHORT TERM. SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN MADE...AND IT CONTINUES TO LIE IN THE CENTER OF A TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN. ISELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 48-72 HOURS...AND THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK
NECESSITATES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ISELLE HAS REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY...AND WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE RATE OF WEAKENING THAT
OCCURS. WHILE SSTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST
TRACK AND INCREASE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THIS IS NOT THE
PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING THE INTENSITY FORECAST. DEBILITATING SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM HOURS
24-60...BEFORE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST RESPONDS BY SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND A SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE
SYSTEM ALSO ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AIR MASS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS DEPICTED BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENING
ISELLE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF ISELLE. WITH AN AVERAGE
72 HOUR TRACK ERROR OF APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO
SOON TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER...AND EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ISELLE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN
EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.4N 140.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.8N 142.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.4N 145.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 18.1N 148.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 18.9N 151.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 20.3N 157.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 163.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 21.5N 168.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD/R BALLARD

[Kingarabian]

Solid, strong category 2 hurricane. No complaints here. That south east band seems to be strengthening and if that's true, this pretty much signals that Iselle's annular days maybe over.

[jaguarjace]

For the archives.

[RL3AO]

Iselle is gonna have to stop the bleeding if its still gonna be a TS in a few days. Weakening very quickly now.