ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Dave C
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#421 Postby Dave C » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:39 pm

Convection limited to se and sw quads, agree with not upgrading yet in my amateur opinion. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#422 Postby Frank2 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:41 pm

The updated TWO covers everything - without the media tenseness that gives everyone neck tightness : )
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#423 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:42 pm

recon looping around dove a little south... center being pulled very quickly into the deeper convection to the S and SE.
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#424 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:44 pm

:uarrow: Do you reckon it could happen fast enough to warrant a special advisory before 11pm?
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#425 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:45 pm

SeGaBob wrote::uarrow: Do you reckon it could happen fast enough to warrant a special advisory before 11pm?



i suppose... but there is still a lot of dry air it needs to work out.. they might though
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Re:

#426 Postby adam0983 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:46 pm

By 8pm tonight we will have Tropical Storm Alex. I am in Palm beach country and the storms have picked up and the wind has increased and the longer it goes southwest the worst the conditions will become. Just an opinion not a forecast.
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Re:

#427 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:recon looping around dove a little south... center being pulled very quickly into the deeper convection to the S and SE.


Aric I see what you are saying, seems like it is trying to tuck itself somewhere under the deeper convection to the south. I lost the naked swirl to the north on the latest floater frame that just came in.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#428 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:48 pm

adam0983 wrote:By 8pm tonight we will have Tropical Storm Alex. I am in Palm beach country and the storms have picked up and the wind has increased and the longer it goes southwest the worst the conditions will become. Just an opinion not a forecast.


Unless we time warped to 2016 it is going to be hard to get Alex by 8:00PM tonight!!! :double: :D :D
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Re: Re:

#429 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:recon looping around dove a little south... center being pulled very quickly into the deeper convection to the S and SE.


Aric I see what you are saying, seems like it is trying to tuck itself somewhere under the deeper convection to the south. I lost the naked swirl to the north on the latest floater frame that just came in.



yeah recon just had a difficult time locating it.. could be reforming anywhere to the s or east.. though a anti poleward relocation dont happen often.. its jut being pulled to the convection to the south or se. or a cyclonic loop. radar helps
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#430 Postby Airboy » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:52 pm

Looks like it's getting better organized pretty fast right now.
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#431 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:54 pm

Its making a run for cover under the convection which was what I have been expecting the last few days. Surface pressure down to 1008.9 mbar from 1011 a few hours ago. If that trend continues we *could* be looking at a 997 MB tropical storm tomorrow.

The model runs should be interesting tonight, there is high pressure evolving over the storm that should influence the track.
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#432 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:54 pm

52 users and 175 guests...lots of people are interested in this one. :)
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#433 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:57 pm

HORRENDOUS decision by NHC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#434 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:58 pm

If I was to venture a guess I'd say it dove, or rather relocated, quite quickly into that convection north of Grand Bahama Island. I'd guess the center to be almost due north of the western tip of Grand Bahama...Just a guess.
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Re:

#435 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:59 pm

Alyono wrote:HORRENDOUS decision by NHC


To not upgrade the storm to TD or TS?
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#436 Postby robbielyn » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:00 pm

It's still headed sw.
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Re: Re:

#437 Postby fci » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:01 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Alyono wrote:HORRENDOUS decision by NHC


To not upgrade the storm to TD or TS?


Yes, can "horrendous" be better explained, please?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#438 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:01 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:If I was to venture a guess I'd say it dove, or rather relocated, quite quickly into that convection north of Grand Bahama Island. I'd guess the center to be almost due north of the western tip of Grand Bahama...Just a guess.


Looks like it is still sagging SW. I have the center east of Ft. Pierce and north of the western tip of Grand Bahama. Continues to lose latitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#439 Postby crimi481 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:02 pm

Another tricky forecast track in the works. Not sold on its trek north. May do loops
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Re: Re:

#440 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:02 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
adam0983 wrote:By 8pm tonight we will have Tropical Storm Alex. I am in Palm beach country and the storms have picked up and the wind has increased and the longer it goes southwest the worst the conditions will become. Just an opinion not a forecast.


Unless we time warped to 2016 it is going to be hard to get Alex by 8:00PM tonight!!! :double: :D :D


kind of like nfl refs..we get a few errors with storm names
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