WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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Alyono
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#401 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:36 am

euro6208 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Solid typhoon....

6.0 from PGTW and KNES now...

Category 4 anyone?


again, the winds likely are lagging.

Did you not follow Arthur? Had a cat 3 Dvorak estimate, yet only had cat 1 winds at that time


Yes i did but Rammasun had something Arthur didn't have and that is a clear well definied eye...This was rapidly intensfying right up to landfall...


so did Arthur. The surface obs from the eye indicate this was nowhere close to a cat 4. My estimate was 95 KT at landfall
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#402 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:39 am

I'm in Legaspi - absolutely savage typhoon. I fear the damage will be bad tomorrow. Dark no so no idea of full extent but the waterfront mall I'm at tool a severe beating from both wind and waves.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#403 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:42 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:I'm in Legaspi - absolutely savage typhoon. I fear the damage will be bad tomorrow. Dark no so no idea of full extent but the waterfront mall I'm at tool a severe beating from both wind and waves.




Good to hear from you, James! How's it going now? It's nice that you were still able to post an update online...
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#404 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:44 am

At one point we thought this would only be a weak TS coming in to Manila. But now it seems that people in this city must take this storm really seriously...



EDIT: Does anyone have a link to JTWC Best Track? I'm curious if JTWC will do increase the intensity right now as the eye is well inland...
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#405 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:47 am

Alyono wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
Alyono wrote:Yes i did but Rammasun had something Arthur didn't have and that is a clear well definied eye...This was rapidly intensfying right up to landfall...


so did Arthur. The surface obs from the eye indicate this was nowhere close to a cat 4. My estimate was 95 KT at landfall


Can you show us this surface obs?
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#406 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:47 am

someone just posted 961mb from the eye.

That still would be a 95/100 kt typhoon, which is VERY DANGEROUS
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Re:

#407 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:48 am

dexterlabio wrote:At one point we thought this would only be a weak TS coming in to Manila. But now it seems that people in this city must take this storm really seriously...



EDIT: Does anyone have a link to JTWC Best Track? I'm curious if JTWC will do increase the intensity right now as the eye is well inland...


http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Waiting for the 12Z update. Still have to wait for the full warning for the JMV data though if they did increase intensity before landfall...
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Re:

#408 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:57 am

Alyono wrote:someone just posted 961mb from the eye.

That still would be a 95/100 kt typhoon, which is VERY DANGEROUS


I'm thinking maybe the equipment that measured this 961 mb blew off and wasn't able to measure lowest pressure after as our fellow storm2k typhoon hunter is saying absolutely savage typhoon...We will find out tomorrow when daylight breaks...I'm fearing massive damage...
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#409 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:58 am

95-100 kts is a savage typhoon. Gusts would be close to EF3 tornado intensity
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Re: Re:

#410 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:05 am

euro6208 wrote:
Alyono wrote:someone just posted 961mb from the eye.

That still would be a 95/100 kt typhoon, which is VERY DANGEROUS


I'm thinking maybe the equipment that measured this 961 mb blew off and wasn't able to measure lowest pressure after as our fellow storm2k typhoon hunter is saying absolutely savage typhoon...We will find out tomorrow when daylight breaks...I'm fearing massive damage...


no, it actually held up during the passage of the eye. i'm not sure about the exact location thought.

I'll try to post a chart of it. It basically dropped from 967hPa to a low of 961hPa in about 10minutes then climbed back to 964hPa after. A nearby station (about 20km away) reported a low pressure of 970hPa around that same timeframe so I'm assuming the pressure readings there closely reflect reality.

As Alyono said, a 961hPa pressure should still translate to a high-end Cat 2 all else being equal so this is still definitely a powerful typhoon. the next city to be raked will be Naga, we'll wait and see what obs they'll measure.
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#411 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:19 am

Does Cebu Ciy have highschool classes tomorrow? This is a very important question please
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Re:

#412 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:42 am

Alyono wrote:someone just posted 961mb from the eye.

That still would be a 95/100 kt typhoon, which is VERY DANGEROUS

Where? What city and province? This is for verification.
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#413 Postby oaba09 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:42 am

PAGASA's website is useless right now....they seriously need to get new servers...
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#414 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:52 am

phwxenthusiast posted that Legazpi City had the 961mb from the eye
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#415 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:54 am

The eye contracted but its still there! Oh my...
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#416 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:15 am

Does Cebu City have classes tomorrow? For highschool, In a private school???
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#417 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:18 am

09W RAMMASUN 140715 1200 13.4N 123.4E WPAC 110 941

110 KTS!!! A high end Category 3... 203 kph!

:crazyeyes:
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#418 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:21 am

941mb? Does JTWC even bother looking at something called DATA?
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#419 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:21 am

ClarkEligue wrote:09W RAMMASUN 140715 1200 13.4N 123.4E WPAC 110 941

110 KTS!!! A high end Category 3... 203 kph!

:crazyeyes:


maybe the gusts, but the surface obs posted earlier indicte those winds are highly unlikely. Still very dangerous though
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#420 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:24 am

JMA has the current pressure at 950mb...I don't think that's too far-fetched from 961mb, assuming that reading was verified correct...
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