EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Down by 5 knots and presssure up to 935:

EP, 01, 2014052518, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1112W, 130, 935, HU

[supercane4867]

I think Jimena may have been a little better organized though. While I think Jimena was a Cat 5, I think Amanda looks stronger.

I remember Jimena was more compact before its first ERC when recon just started, perhaps was stronger on August 30th so it could've been attained Cat.5

[Yellow Evan]

I think Jimena may have been a little better organized though. While I think Jimena was a Cat 5, I think Amanda looks stronger.

I remember Jimena was more compact before its first ERC when recon just started, perhaps was stronger on August 30th so it could've been attained Cat.5

Though I also recall it intensifying again after recon left. It was IMO a Cat 5 twice.

[Meow]

The appearance is becoming worse. With LG ring + OW eye, Amanda is gradually weakening, and it's eye is filling up.

[supercane4867]

The appearance is becoming worse. With LG ring + OW eye, Amanda is gradually weakening, and it's eye is filling up.

Next advisory will likely go lower than ATCF update

XPZ21 KNES 251816
TCSENP

A. 01E (AMANDA)

B. 25/1800Z

C. 12.1N

D. 111.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG RING WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED BY WH. PT=5.5
MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. SHORT TREND TREND W1.0/06 HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Yellow Evan]

Still, this is a very powerful storm.

[Kingarabian]

Let's see if it can make it out alive and manage to re-strengthen again. Conditions become unfavorable in about 10 hours or so. Main thing to hinder it right now is upwelling since it's nearly stationary.

[RL3AO]

Tried reading comments on NHCs Facebook page but it hurt my brain. That thing is going to be a mess when a storm approaches the US. so much misinformation

[Meow]

The eye is almost filled up at 2001Z. Good luck Amanda.

[Yellow Evan]

Tried reading comments on NHCs Facebook page but it hurt my brain. That thing is going to be a mess when a storm approaches the US. so much misinformation

I was reading comments on the TWC about it as well. I agree there
is a lot of misinformation, but that's common in almost every hurricane that makes headlines.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 252032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AMANDA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 111.3W
ABOUT 740 MI...1185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Disco gonna be interesting to see if they mention an ERC or not.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the track, the NHC is showing the stall scenario I think they would. Even less likely to hit land now IMO.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Amanda
likely peaked in intensity around 1200 UTC this morning and has
started weakening since then. The CDO feature has decreased in size
and become more ragged looking during the past few hours, and the
small eye is becoming less distinct and cloud-filled in visible
imagery. A 1459 UTC SSMI/S microwave image revealed that Amanda
possessed a pinhole eye, which usually means that an eyewall
replacement cycle is not far behind. The initial intensity has been
decreased to 130 kt based on a blend of final T-numbers from TAFB
and SAB ranging from T5.5/102 kt to T6.5/127 kt. Although UW-CIMSS
ADT estimates remain at T6.9/137 kt, the raw values have dropped to
T6.1/117 kt, which further supports lowering the initial intensity.

Amanda is now moving northward to north-northwestward or 350/04 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to maintain this general motion for the
next 3 days or so as the cyclone remains embedded in southerly
steering flow between a broad deep-layer trough to its west and a
weak mid-level ridge to its east. After that time, Amanda is
forecast to weaken fairly significantly and become a shallow cyclone
that could briefly stall before turning westward or southwestward
when it comes under the influence of a large low-level subtropical
ridge to its north. The model guidance suite has shifted westward
this cycle, including the consensus model TVCE. However, the latter
model is biased by a more westerly track of the UKMET model that
initialized a very weak cyclone instead of a more robust category 4
hurricane. Therefore, the official track forecast remains similar to
the previous track and lies to right of TVCE, near the eastern
portion of the guidance envelope and closer to the ECMWF model.

Cold upwelling and occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air should
slowly erode the inner-core convection over the next 24 hours or so.
An eyewall replacement cycle is also possible, which would act to
hasten the weakening process. By day 2 and beyond, the combination
of cooler water, drier air, and increasing southerly vertical wind
shear should induce more rapid weakening, and Amanda is forecast to
degenerate into a non-convective remnant low by day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 12.3N 111.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 12.8N 111.4W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 13.6N 111.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 15.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 17.1N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 18.0N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 18.4N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[supercane4867]

Spectacular view of powerful Hurricane Amanda on May 25th 2014 around 16z



Uploaded the original size to Wikimedia(19.31MB)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... Amanda.png

[Yellow Evan]

Spectacular view of powerful Hurricane Amanda on May 25th 2014 around 16z



Uploaded the original size to Wikimedia(19.31MB)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... Amanda.png

Looks terrific. Granted, 16z was 5 hours ago.

[WeatherGuesser]

Tried reading comments ... Facebook page but it hurt my brain. That thing is going to be a mess

Fakebook IS a mess. Period.

[Yellow Evan]

Still looks elite IMO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12Z HWRF initializes Amanda as a Cat.5, 175kt on 850mb level translates to about 140kt at surface

That is just model-analyzed, but 175kt at 850 millibars would support a 140kt Category 5.

While I believe this peaked at 160 mph, there's not quite enough evidence for an upgrade. SAB came in at T6.5/127kt despite TAFB's T7.0/140kt, and UW-CIMSS ADT peaked at T6.9/137kt. This storm is more borderline than Igor.

[CrazyC83]

Was it a Cat 5? Maybe at 1200Z. But 130 kt is likely generous now.