EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Just like that and we're looking at another TC. Always take note even if it's just a single model calling for a particular event.

Unless it's a tiny CMC system, I agree, at least for this season.

[Yellow Evan]

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves slowly
northward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Just when you thought the track was settled, it's not. CMC and GFS have flipped flopped tracks this run and NOGAPS is a little more west early on but more east later on and move it very slowly.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form by late week while the disturbance
moves slowly northward and then northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

EP, 93, 2014090112, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1042W, 20, 1009, DB

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS shows a Jimena 09/Doreen 77 hybrid



Landfall #1



Peak

Later has it moving onshore in Baja for a second time.

[Yellow Evan]

6z NOGAPS shows a more W track and has it moving into central Baja as an intensifying hurricane. We've never seen an intensifying hurricane hit the central peninsula, with the record SST's, it's possible.



0z NOGAPS a little more E and weaker.



0z Euro stronger but more to the E. Has it being a little like Henriette 95 in track, before doing a Hilary 93 and heading north.

6z HWRF dropped it, but 0z HWRF shows a 985mbar TC hitting Baja after getting stuck inside like Ignacio 03. But HWRF has a major E bias with these kinds of systems.



12z GFS lies a little E of the last run, but keeps it a bit offshore Baja.





Has it heading W now, before moving N. We're starting to get a consensus here. FIM shows something similar.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 09/01/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 32 37 40 42 41 38 36 34
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 32 37 40 42 41 38 36 34
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 27 29 29 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 26 29 25 26 28 25 16 18 19 24 28 27 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 5 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 40 45 48 49 52 69 65 74 89 85 84 91 82
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 160 160 159 159 160 160 159 157 154 150
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 84 84 81 81 81 82 79 75 72 67
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -21 -15 -3 -13 2 14 20 29 24 27 34 41
200 MB DIV 106 77 79 83 72 60 33 52 62 56 53 13 2
700-850 TADV -10 -7 -3 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 3
LAND (KM) 453 433 404 386 373 364 382 439 501 505 467 452 462
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.3
LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.4 105.0 105.6 106.7 107.6 108.6 109.6 110.7 111.7 112.7 113.5
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 63 71 71 70 64 31 21 16 19 18 11 7 6

Now showing a more W track.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi · 36s
GFS following ECMWF trying to recurve New Pacific storm in s a few days ne by early next week. SST abnormally warm

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure extending several hundred miles west-
southwestward from near the southwestern coast of Mexico continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
late this week while the disturbance moves slowly northward and then
northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico later this week
which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

[supercane4867]

[Yellow Evan]

12z HWRF once again dead set on a track into the GOC as a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi · 2m
Cat 2-3 Hurricane, perhaps stronger, should develop near S tip Baja later this week, Major surf S cal next week. could impact Baja directly

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF hurricane west of Baja

[Kingarabian]

SoCal could be getting even more moisture at this rate. Things are getting serious now.

[Yellow Evan]

SoCal could be getting even more moisture at this rate. Things are getting serious now.

They need the rain.

I'm skeptical of the high shear forecast by SHIPS and the unagressive statistical models.

[Yellow Evan]

The system is such a mess right now. It should have no major problems intensifying though if everything stays the same.

[Kingarabian]

SoCal could be getting even more moisture at this rate. Things are getting serious now.

They need the rain.

I'm skeptical of the high shear forecast by SHIPS and the unagressive statistical models.

Think it's possible that we'll get a Baja gulf rider into Calexico?

[Yellow Evan]

SoCal could be getting even more moisture at this rate. Things are getting serious now.

They need the rain.

I'm skeptical of the high shear forecast by SHIPS and the unagressive statistical models.

Think it's possible that we'll get a Baja gulf rider into Calexico?

No. HWRF has an east bias still (at this point, the models only flaw). It'll likely move NNE then W due to the ridge, slow down and wait for a trough, and then move NNW again.

[cycloneye]

‏@RyanMaue · 2m
ECMWF 12z solution for 93E in Eastern Pacific would be major flood potential for SW US. Need to monitor Hurricane Norbert during days 5-7