ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[capepoint]

that didn't take long lol. An eastern NC tv met just posted on the stations facebook page that recon found 50 kt tropical cyclone winds and we would have a TS at 5, along with watches. Pulling the ratings trigger a little soon????

[adam0983]

Does anyone think any watch will be issued for Palm Beach Country at 5pm? The center is moving southwest towards West Palm Beach. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[eastcoastFL]

From my local short term NOAA forecast:

AN INTENSE SQUALL BAND...ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE
LOW...HAS FORMED BETWEEN 20 AND 60 MILES OFFSHORE BETWEEN SEBASTIAN
AND JUPITER INLETS. THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30
KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES. MARINERS SHOULD MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR IF THEY HAVEN`T DONE SO
ALREADY.

[Hammy]

Almost looks like it's going to be onshore in about 12 hours with that motion.

[hurricanefloyd5]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 0365446027

[cycloneye]

that didn't take long lol. An eastern NC tv met just posted on the stations facebook page that recon found 50 kt tropical cyclone winds and we would have a TS at 5, along with watches. Pulling the ratings trigger a little soon????

Official word is from NHC. No 50kt winds have been found.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone think any watch will be issued for Palm Beach Country at 5pm? The center is moving southwest towards West Palm Beach. Just an opinion not a forecast.

I doubt it because its moving SW at 5mph and supposed to turn to the west. I am in port st lucie and I would be surprised to see anything for us by 5pm today. looks like its going to get pretty close to palm beaches and treasure coast before turning to the north.

[psyclone]

I would imagine it will be very hard to squeeze out TS conditions west of the COC, potential watches notwithstanding for the FL coast.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[capepoint]

That's a great radar loop Mark and it shows the motion pretty good and also it shows the new convection popping around the center. I'd say it's getting its act together and feeding off of those very warm GS waters.

Yes, clearly still maintaining SSW motion. Too many people are already saying it's stalled or changed direction.....

[Bocadude85]

Does anyone think any watch will be issued for Palm Beach Country at 5pm? The center is moving southwest towards West Palm Beach. Just an opinion not a forecast.

I wouldn't think there will be any watches issued for South Florida... I can't see the watches extending any further south then Jupiter Inlet.

[floridasun78]

miami beach weather was good with no wave but i can see cloud to north toward broward

[tropicwatch]

Saved radar loop

It is looking a lot better with some banding now.

[gatorcane]

Latest VIS floater, saved loop image. Motion still SW:

[Bocadude85]

Latest VIS floater, saved loop image. Motion still SW:

Yea still looks to be heading SW.. about to slip below 28 degrees... a little farther south then I thought it would make it.

[TheAustinMan]

Short-term graphicast from the NWS Office at Melbourne (accessible at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/blog.php ) detailing the development of the strong squall rainband from 91L and expected motion.

[SouthFLTropics]

The center is exposed once again on visible and the motion is clear to the SSW to SW...Looks like it's making a beeline straight for my house! I wonder if I should go ahead and put my shutters up!!! J/K

[Aric Dunn]

That's a great radar loop Mark and it shows the motion pretty good and also it shows the new convection popping around the center. I'd say it's getting its act together and feeding off of those very warm GS waters.

Yes, clearly still maintaining SSW motion. Too many people are already saying it's stalled or changed direction.....

This slightly increased sw forward motion maybe the beginnings of a cyclonic loop do to the convection building to the east and se.. we will probably see it turn s the se.. but over all motion of the much larger circ still sw and abut 5 mph

[eastcoastFL]

I agree, an upgrade to a T.D. at 5pm EST makes sense.

Question will be what watches and warnings will we see for the East Coast and NE Coast of Florida?

Probably TS watch from Daytona to jupiter inlet. Just IMO

[tropicwatch]

Looks like West Palm Beach might get a pretty good band of showers from 91L this afternoon.

[Weatherboy1]

Well we've had a lot of these "naked swirl" type systems form off the central/eastern FL coast in the past few years, but this appears to be one that could be a closer call to the east coast than a lot of the others. We'll have to see how long the SSW/SW motion continues for, but there's not a lot of ocean between this low center and the coast. In any event, it won't get very strong before starting its eventual turn to the N, so I'm certainly not expecting anything more than a few gusts and rain squalls at this time.

Just my opinion and all that jazz


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.