CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2014 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 14:18:00 N Lon : 150:53:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1005.8mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 3.5

Center Temp : -70.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 47km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.9 degrees

[AbcdeerHI]

the banding is really improving

especially on visible imagery
click image to animate

[South Texas Storms]

the banding is really improving

especially on visible imagery
click image to animate
http://imageshack.com/a/img673/781/nbIsms.gif

Yeah it looks to be wrapping up nicely now.

[Kingarabian]

Convection seems to be rounding near the center.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS shifts more to the west.

[AbcdeerHI]

18z GFS shifts more to the west.

18z and 12z comparison

[Alyono]

looks like the long expected turn is starting

[Kingarabian]

Also, convection is expanding to the west over the center.

[Kingarabian]

Wrapping nicely.

[cycloneye]

Still at 50kts at 00z Best Track.

CP, 02, 2014101700, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1514W, 50, 1000, TS

[wxman57]

Almost every member of both the GFS & EC ensembles takes Ana safely west of the Hawaiian Islands now. Looks like the islands may only be brushed by a few of Ana's outer bands of showers.

[AFWeather]

Interested to see just how far they're willing to move the track to the left with this update. They've been on the right side of the guidance the last several updates. But even that should be far enough away now to cancel the watch for the big island. Would also depend on how far they think the wind field will expand (if at all).

[Kingarabian]

That's the way to do it, Ana.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ana is probably worthy of the 60kt winds the CPHC was giving it the other day.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA35 PHFO 170229
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

...ANA MAKING TURN TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AND NEARING HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 151.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AREA FROM NECKER TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.9 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH ANA POSSIBLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SHORELINES BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[AbcdeerHI]

WTPA45 PHFO 170251
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

A PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES CAME IN AT
3.0/45 KT...AND GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TREND...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT. U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WILL
BE SAMPLING ANA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PROVIDING CRUCIAL DATA.

THE LONG ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST APPEARS TO HAVE
BEGUN. A 2224Z TRMM PASS HELPED TO LOCATE A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF GOES
RAPID SCAN HAS HELPED TO DETERMINED THE SHIFT IN FORWARD MOTION...
WHICH IS SET AT 295/10 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ANA IS NUDGED EASTWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONE HAS HELD
STRONGER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE LEFT DURING EACH FORECAST CYCLE IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY SHIFTING TO
THE LEFT...THOUGH IT STILL REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE DYNAMIC
AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. EVEN WITH THE SHIFT IN THE TRACK...
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS STILL UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...
AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS BEING POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV HAS
BEEN SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT...INCLUDING THE RIDGE...AND THE
AIRCRAFT/S EFFORTS HAVE BEEN GREATLY APPRECIATED. A RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANA TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE TURN HAVING
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS AS TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FELT ON THE
REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. BY DAY 5...ANA IS
FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS AND
OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE. IN ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW IN
ALL BUT THE WESTERN QUADRANT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY.
THAT SAID...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS ANA AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE LATE FRIDAY. THE WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ANA GIVES WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO IMPART VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SHIPS DURING THIS WEAKENING PHASE.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF ANA. WITH AN AVERAGE 48
HOUR TRACK ERROR OF APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
SAY WITH MUCH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ANA. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 14.6N 151.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 15.4N 153.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 16.6N 155.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 17.9N 157.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 19.0N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.4N 159.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 21.6N 162.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 23.0N 164.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[AFWeather]

Track keeps it over 100 miles from the Oahu coast now. Expecting MAYBE a tropical storm force gust in some areas, which we get on a strong trade winds day anyway, and some rain. Fortunate if this track holds up.

[TheStormExpert]

Still Hawaii is uner a State of Emergency because of Ana. Knowing it is Hawaii which is not used to these kinds of systems at all it does not suprise me.

[Kingarabian]

I remember Hurricane Flossie of 2007 wobbled into the Big Island even though the track called for it to pass the big island safely to the south.

Better to be safe than sorry.

From the 5PM discussion:

.AND THE
AIRCRAFT/S EFFORTS HAVE BEEN GREATLY APPRECIATED. A RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANA TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE TURN HAVING
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS AS TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FELT ON THE
REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. BY DAY 5...ANA IS
FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

[Kingarabian]

00z Operational GFS shifts closer to the Hawaiian islands compared to the 18z run.