CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

is it trying to reform a CCC again? Not entirely sure

the visible does look more impressive than previously, however

[Kingarabian]

is it trying to reform a CCC again? Not entirely sure

the visible does look more impressive than previously, however

The center seems to be NW of that ball of convection.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro rolling.

Has 984mb within 48 hours as it passes the Big Island.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is more west and has it missing a direct landfall on the Hawaiian islands.

[Alyono]

the EC is much slower than the GFDL/HWRF. This allows the ridge to build back in prior to reaching the islands. A faster motion would result in a landfall

[Kingarabian]

Is Ana moving slower or faster?

[Alyono]

seems to be moving at the same speed

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 00Z EC ensembles and only 1 of the 50 members moves the center into any of the islands. Of the 50 members, 47 have virtually no impact on the islands. By that I mean less than TS winds on land. 12Z EC ensembles aren't in yet.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at this microwave pass, I don't think it's a CCC. More of a curve. That western half of the storm still has no deep convection. That needs to change.

[Kingarabian]

I'm looking at the 00Z EC ensembles and only 1 of the 50 members moves the center into any of the islands. Of the 50 members, 47 have virtually no impact on the islands. By that I mean less than TS winds on land. 12Z EC ensembles aren't in yet.

That's interesting. From what I've seen, the Euro had a good handle on this from the start. It never showed a big island hit and always showed Ana riding up close to the islands.

[cycloneye]

No change since 24 hours ago on the Best Track with the 50kts intensity.

18z Best Track:

CP, 02, 2014101618, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1504W, 50, 1000, TS

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 00Z EC ensembles and only 1 of the 50 members moves the center into any of the islands. Of the 50 members, 47 have virtually no impact on the islands. By that I mean less than TS winds on land. 12Z EC ensembles aren't in yet.

That's interesting. From what I've seen, the Euro had a good handle on this from the start. It never showed a big island hit and always showed Ana riding up close to the islands.

I think the Euro is too slow with Ana, too slow with Gonzalo, and it has been too slow for the various West Pac storms over the past month. On the other side, the GFS has been too fast with all storms. A slower Ana gets blocked by high pressure before reaching the northern Hawaiian islands, as the EC indicates. If Ana moves a little faster than it may directly impact the northern islands, even Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

I'm looking at the 00Z EC ensembles and only 1 of the 50 members moves the center into any of the islands. Of the 50 members, 47 have virtually no impact on the islands. By that I mean less than TS winds on land. 12Z EC ensembles aren't in yet.

That's interesting. From what I've seen, the Euro had a good handle on this from the start. It never showed a big island hit and always showed Ana riding up close to the islands.

I think the Euro is too slow with Ana, too slow with Gonzalo, and it has been too slow for the various West Pac storms over the past month. On the other side, the GFS has been too fast with all storms. A slower Ana gets blocked by high pressure before reaching the northern Hawaiian islands, as the EC indicates. If Ana moves a little faster than it may directly impact the northern islands, even Oahu.

As for the CPHC track, do you think it's just right and that it splits the Euro and GFS solutions? (Thanks for your reply btw).

[wxman57]

As for the CPHC track, do you think it's just right and that it splits the Euro and GFS solutions? (Thanks for your reply btw).

The CPHC track is way east/north of all model guidance with the exception of the GFDL/HWRF, which haven't proven to be very good. Consensus and GFS/EC ensembles have Ana passing far enough south and west of Honolulu that you see only 20-30 mph winds there.

[hawaiigirl]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

[Kingarabian]

As for the CPHC track, do you think it's just right and that it splits the Euro and GFS solutions? (Thanks for your reply btw).

The CPHC track is way east/north of all model guidance with the exception of the GFDL/HWRF, which haven't proven to be very good. Consensus and GFS/EC ensembles have Ana passing far enough south and west of Honolulu that you see only 20-30 mph winds there.

Oh I see. Interesting.

So the GFS ensembles differ from the operational? The operational 12zGFS is basically flirting with the Hawaiian Islands as it passes the Big Island.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA35 PHFO 162043
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST THU OCT 16 2014

...ANA CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER TO HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 150.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AREA FROM NECKER TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.9 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. ANA IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND ANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII STARTING LATE FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINES BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME
AREAS.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST THU OCT 16 2014

AS IT HAS BEEN DOING FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ANA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE INTENSE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO A LIMITED
AREA. ONE SUCH BURST IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. THE LATEST DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...WITH CIMSS
SATCON FROM 1520Z ESTIMATING 44 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT BLOSSOMING
OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS UNDERWAY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HELD AT 50 KT.

DUE TO ITS CONTINUED RAGGED APPEARANCE...THE CENTER LOCATION
CONTINUES TO POSE A CHALLENGE. THE SAB AND JTWC FIXES PUT THE
CENTER A BIT EAST OF THE HFO ESTIMATE...AND WITH THE AID OF
MICROWAVE DATA FROM 1638 AND 1732Z...THE CENTER POSITION FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN PLACED IN BETWEEN THE FIX AGENCIES TO THE WEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE RESULT IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION...WHICH IS SET AT 270/07 KT. ANA IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANA SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXPECTED
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH 72
HOURS BUT STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL AND
CONSENSUS ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 36 HOUR POSITION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV IS SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND
ANA TODAY...AND THE DATA FROM THIS FLIGHT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE. ON SUNDAY...A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WILL IMPART AN INCREASING MOTION WESTWARD...WITH THE TIMING
OF THE TURN HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FELT ON THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY DAY 5...
ANA IS FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NIHOA.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE. HOWEVER...ANA
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW CHANNEL...AND
WITH ANA REMAINING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF NOW FAIL TO BRING
ANA TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST BRIEFLY BRINGS
THE SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS
ANA ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPARTED BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF ANA. WITH AN AVERAGE 48
HOUR TRACK ERROR OF APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
SAY WITH MUCH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ANA. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.3N 150.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 15.0N 152.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 16.0N 154.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 17.4N 156.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 18.8N 157.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 20.7N 158.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 21.9N 160.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 22.9N 162.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Alyono]

the banding is really improving