ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

So far it looks like it is still a wave. Only easterly winds being reported in the low levels near where the lowest surface pressures were found. Makes sense. Agree with the other mets on here that the best development chances are likely tonight into Tue.

[SouthDadeFish]

19.7N 91.7W is the area I see any possible turning being maximized and maybe points SW of there. Still doesn't look to have any sort of circulation yet though via recon data.

[tropicwatch]

Flight level reporting some westerly winds during last report.

[cycloneye]

Bingo.

[SouthDadeFish]

That is pretty far west... I would like to see them fly east from that location and see what they find.

[tailgater]

SCF pressures all over the place, certainly not a defined center yet

[ScottNAtlanta]

Flight level reporting some westerly winds during last report.

Thats not very close to the lowest pressure measured so far though. The more I look at this the more I think this might try to reform north. I can pick out at least 3 different swirls. The southernmost one seems to be under a lot of shear. If it reforms on the northern end I think its in a better place to organize. So far, recon has been on the western end. The next couple of hours should give a little more clarity when recon gets into the eastern side and to see if there is any more bursting and where.

I'm looking at about 20.7N 91.7W

[drezee]

That is pretty far west... I would like to see them fly east from that location and see what they find.

With the curvature of the wind, I would actually think the center was NW of the pass. If you hit the center( given a well defined center), the winds are perpendicular to the path of the plane.

[SouthDadeFish]

That is pretty far west... I would like to see them fly east from that location and see what they find.

With the curvature of the wind, I would actually think the center was NW of the pass. If you hit the center( given a well defined center), the winds are perpendicular to the path of the plane.

I understand that, but as you said, this is for a well-defined center, which this disturbance clearly does not have.

[drezee]

There is a bit of NNW shear...it also seems to be moving a bit more northerly than model depictions. Convection is displaced to the SE and will be until a tower pops over the center

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Recon was able to close off a broad center, consistent with increasing rotation on visible satellite. With moderate northerly shear, this disturbance should only slowly to steadily organize over the next day or two. I still a favor a 50-60 mph tropical storm moving in near Tampico, perhaps a little south of.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon was able to close off a broad center, consistent with increasing rotation on visible satellite. With moderate northerly shear, this disturbance should only slowly to steadily organize over the next day or two. I still a favor a 50-60 mph tropical storm moving in near Tampico, perhaps a little south of.

Yeah, but that area has the highest pressures they recorded since the plane descended. I'd like to see what they find NE of there.

[wxman57]

Looks like a weak LLC near 20N/93.3W. Winds only 5-10 kts within 100 miles of there. Certainly doesn't qualify as a TD today. Earliest development would be tomorrow morning, but it should move ashore tomorrow night.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like this is one of those unique cases where instead of needing to find west wind, we need to find true north winds to close off the LLC.

[tropicwatch]

For something not that organized, recon reporting some pretty constant TS force winds.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
about 300 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
low to see if a well-defined center of circulation has formed.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression later today or
on Tuesday while it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph. Interests
along the western Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this disturbance, since watches or warnings could soon be
required. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy
rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today
and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on
Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Looks, to my eyes, to be organizing fairly rapidly. Will be interesting to see how recon data changes throughout the mission.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Saved AVN loop:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is now getting close to where I think the center was trying to reform (if it had formed at all), and pressures are lowering last pressure reading was 1009.2 dropping from 1010.4 in the last 8 readings...still S winds though.

[drezee]

Looks like a weak LLC near 20N/93.3W. Winds only 5-10 kts within 100 miles of there. Certainly doesn't qualify as a TD today. Earliest development would be tomorrow morning, but it should move ashore tomorrow night.

Recon just cleaned up their line on the path to the possible LLC. They have leveled at 20.5N. I believe they have a radar view on an area they feel is a center.