EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: EPAC: CRISTINA - Hurricane
Intensity forecast is still a headache, we have a lot to learn yet.
0 likes
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Cristina likely peaked as a 135kt cyclone near 12z when -80C convection wrapped fully around the eye. Since that time, the eye has cooled slightly and eyewall convection has weakened some. I'd give 130kt in conjunction with the latest NHC advisory.
Imagine how this would've performed in the absence of the dry air that it struggled with for much of its life before yesterday.
EDIT: Image at my estimated peak intensity:
Imagine how this would've performed in the absence of the dry air that it struggled with for much of its life before yesterday.
EDIT: Image at my estimated peak intensity:
Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: EPAC: CRISTINA - Hurricane
Here's a nice nighttime visible shot from Colorado State - taken with the help of the nearly full moon last night:
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
- MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5796
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: EPAC: CRISTINA - Hurricane
Cristina in the moon light...thanks 57. Beautiful image. Didn't know the image sensors were that sensitive. Cristina has not failed to impress. Two cyclones with crazy rapid intensification. Looks to me the hurricane has peaked out to me......MGC
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: EPAC: CRISTINA - Hurricane
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: EPAC: CRISTINA - Hurricane
MGC wrote:Cristina in the moon light...thanks 57. Beautiful image. Didn't know the image sensors were that sensitive. Cristina has not failed to impress. Two cyclones with crazy rapid intensification. Looks to me the hurricane has peaked out to me......MGC
I believe it has maxed out in intensity as well. Nonetheless, Cristina certainly is impressive. Wow. At peak intensity, Cristina was about as textbook looking as a hurricane can get that's for sure.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Here's a breakdown of this:
To have a Category 4 bordering Category 5 status in May is exceedingly rare.
To have another Category 4 just weeks later in June, again nearing Category 5 status is beyond rare (in fact it's never happened before).
We will end June with at least two Category 4 hurricanes having occurred so far (Amanda and Cristina). Some seasons go all the way through November 30 without seeing a single Category 4. It happened last year in EPAC.
So far, with the current ACE, the season is almost ahead of the entire Atlantic season last year.
The previous record for the earliest second Category 4 was July 1. With our second coming on June 12, the record has been shattered by 19 days.
By the end of June, I won't be surprised if we find out that it's the highest ACE ever seen for the first two months in the season.
Back to Cristina, although it seems to be weakening now, it intensified from 65 knots to 130 knots in 24 hours. That's an increase of 65 knots in 24 hours.
To have a Category 4 bordering Category 5 status in May is exceedingly rare.
To have another Category 4 just weeks later in June, again nearing Category 5 status is beyond rare (in fact it's never happened before).
We will end June with at least two Category 4 hurricanes having occurred so far (Amanda and Cristina). Some seasons go all the way through November 30 without seeing a single Category 4. It happened last year in EPAC.
So far, with the current ACE, the season is almost ahead of the entire Atlantic season last year.
The previous record for the earliest second Category 4 was July 1. With our second coming on June 12, the record has been shattered by 19 days.
By the end of June, I won't be surprised if we find out that it's the highest ACE ever seen for the first two months in the season.
Back to Cristina, although it seems to be weakening now, it intensified from 65 knots to 130 knots in 24 hours. That's an increase of 65 knots in 24 hours.
Last edited by hurricanes1234 on Thu Jun 12, 2014 2:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Best track has Cristina down to 125 knots. Still impressive nonetheless and if it can stay alive for a couple more days at hurricane strength, the ACE will go up by a lot.
03E CRISTINA 140612 1800 16.7N 107.5W EPAC 125 940
03E CRISTINA 140612 1800 16.7N 107.5W EPAC 125 940
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Here's a breakdown of this:
To have a Category 4 bordering Category 5 status in May is exceedingly rare.
To have another Category 4 just weeks later in June, again nearing Category 5 status is beyond rare (in fact it's never happened before).
We will end June with at least two Category 4 hurricanes having occurred so far (Amanda and Cristina). Some seasons go all the way through November 30 without seeing a single Category 4. It happened last year in EPAC.
So far, with the current ACE, the season is almost ahead of the entire Atlantic season last year.
The previous record for the earliest second Category 4 was July 1. With our second coming on June 12, the record has been shattered by 19 days.
By the end of June, I won't be surprised if we find out that it's the highest ACE ever seen for the first two months in the season.
Back to Cristina, although it seems to be weakening now, it intensified from 65 knots to 130 knots in 24 hours. That's an increase of 65 knots in 24 hours.
Odv, this is remarkable. I think your next to last record one about the ACE may not happen. Guess what seasons owns that record? 2010. XD As for Cristina, it's still an amzaing hurricane. This is the 4th fatest 24 hour EI, after Amanda, Kiko 83, and Linda 97. Tied with Elida 02.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: EPAC: CRISTINA - Hurricane
AVHRR high resolution false color imagery taken around 16z
Zoomed channel 1 view shows an extremely clear eye
Zoomed channel 1 view shows an extremely clear eye
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests