WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

I have a 6hr movement of 273.8 deg (west) at 14.5 kts. 12hr movement is same direction at 16.5 kts. Up to about 18.5 kts for 24hr movement. Clearly, it's slowing down a lot. Does this decrease the risk to the Philippines? Possibly. But if I lived in the Philippines I'd be preparing for a typhoon hit just in case.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM SOUTH OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, PGTW AND RJTD
SATELLITE FIXES, AND A 021152Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
ROBUST OUTFLOW CHANNELS SUSTAIN THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND SUPPORT
THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
MESSAGE. INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRACKED WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR.
B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. 500-MB UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
STR LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN SLIGHTLY WEAKENING
THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE TYPHOON TO SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REACHING 100 KNOTS. TY HAGUPIT IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN CAUSING A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING IN SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS AND/OR QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE SURGE AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO STORM MOTION UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SHORT TERM AND TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's due west, not WNW. In fact, it dipped by 0.1 latitude.

Umm, I think Alyono is saying that the issue with MU is that it analysed the current motion wrong (It analysed WNW while Hagupit was moving W) so the model forecast is maybe wrong.

BTW, What does MU stands for? I only know GFS.

I know. I was referring to the current movement analyzed but not Alyono.

MU is Model Uccellini which is another name for GFS.

[cycloneye]

If HAGUPIT is going to be a SuperTyphoon,it has to stay at low latitudes to avoid the cold surge and shear to the north of 15N.

[talkon]

It's due west, not WNW. In fact, it dipped by 0.1 latitude.

Umm, I think Alyono is saying that the issue with MU is that it analysed the current motion wrong (It analysed WNW while Hagupit was moving W) so the model forecast is maybe wrong.

BTW, What does MU stands for? I only know GFS.

I know. I was referring to the current movement analyzed but not Alyono.

MU is Model Uccellini which is another name for GFS.

Thanks, no problem then.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I have a 6hr movement of 273.8 deg (west) at 14.5 kts. 12hr movement is same direction at 16.5 kts. Up to about 18.5 kts for 24hr movement. Clearly, it's slowing down a lot. Does this decrease the risk to the Philippines? Possibly. But if I lived in the Philippines I'd be preparing for a typhoon hit just in case.

Latitude is very low and is moving west. However it may be the start to lifting WNW but it actually increases because it gets closer to my location if that would be and there is no break yet in the ridge. The ridge remains powerful. And a difference of 4 kts is not a lot

[dexterlabio]

Should start to turn WNW now, but even then the orientation of the STR in the streamline analysis will seem to drive the storm east of Visayas anyway. From thereon, the trough and cold surge will set in and it's up to this storm if it will continue moving west or recurve towards its demise.

[dexterlabio]

Btw this storm has a wide outflow but its actual core is small and compact. Won't be surprised if I wake up tomorrow morning and a visible eye peeks out...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021505
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
200 AM CHST WED DEC 2 2014

...HAGUPIT BECOMES A TYPHOON...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI...YAP AND NGULU IN
YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.2N 142.7E

ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND NGULU
ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.7
EAST.

TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 20 MPH. HAGUPIT IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DROP
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO

[talkon]

TPPN11 PGTW 021516

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 6.42N

D. 143.03E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN TIGHTLY
WRAPS 1.50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. PT AGREES
WITH DT, WHILE MET YIELDS A 4.0 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1027Z 6.02N 143.97E SSMS


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

NAVGEM at 959 mb!

[euro6208]

Very small eye taking shape...

[cycloneye]

Shear will be minimal on the forecast track but as I said earlier,if it goes north is dead meat.

[talkon]

TXPQ28 KNES 021542
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 6.3N

D. 142.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT OF 5.0 BASED ON LLCC EMBEDDED IN WHITE. MET IS 4.0
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO LLCC BEING NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/1026Z 6.1N 143.8E SSMIS
02/1152Z 6.0N 143.7E AMSU


...LIDDICK

[dexterlabio]

12z GFS recurve as usual, but the NAVGEM switches to the Euro camp.

[euro6208]

[ManilaTC]

Storm appears to be gaining latitude in the last 6 hours...

[euro6208]

Hagupit Intensifies South of Guam / Wednesday Evening Update

Hagupit continues to intensify today as it tracks west over the pacific ocean south of Guam. At this time its only impact on the island is rough surf but as it tracks west it will surely have a much larger impact on the American unincorporated islands of Yap and Palau.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXBkuXU5S8c[/youtube]


http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2014/12/02/hagupit-intensifies-south-of-guam-wednesday-evening-update/

[dexterlabio]

Canadian model also seems to leave the recurve camp in the 12z run, though both GEM and NAVGEM models are a bit north of Euro track. Let's see if the two models switch camp again in the next run or if Euro itself abandons its westward scenario.

[Alyono]

not sure it is gaining latitude. A microwave pass from 12Z showed the center still near 6N. We're seeing convection expanding northward