ATL: Ex NINE

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 21 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.2°N and 93.8°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 90 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb.

[USTropics]

Luis, where did you get that ASCAT image? I don't see any recent passes on the only ASCAT URL I know of:

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php

Someone posted it at Dr Masters blog.

Here is the link:

http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/ascat_ ... ag_det.gif

[CrazyC83]

It seems that an LLC is well-established, it just needs deep convection. If it develops before landfall, when was the last time a storm made landfall on the western side of the Yucatan?

[Hammy]

when was the last time a storm made landfall on the western side of the Yucatan?

That would be Mitch in 1998.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998H/MITCH/track.gif

[jhpigott]

I know it's only indirectly related to the tropical low in the BOC - but it has been raining torrentially the last few hours here in the northern part of Palm Beach County.

[cycloneye]

There is the low center as plane made the pass. Looks like closed.

[CourierPR]

18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 21 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.2°N and 93.8°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 90 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb.

That pressure is two millibars lower than earlier.

[CrazyC83]

With the closed LLC, how long would we need deep convection to persist before being declared a TC?

[cycloneye]

We have a VDM!

URNT12 KNHC 211937
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/19:05:40Z
B. 19 deg 16 min N
093 deg 43 min W
C. 925 mb 703 m
D. 34 kt
E. 222 deg 6 nm
F. 306 deg 32 kt
G. 221 deg 8 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 21 C / 766 m
J. 23 C / 765 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 01IIA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 32 KT 221 / 8 NM 19:03:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

[gatorcane]

Wow 1001mb! Lower than I thought...

[CourierPR]

Does that 1001 mb pressure reading indicate a deepening low?

[drezee]

I will say that I have seen a vortex message with less...in those instances, development was emanate and well forecasted in the GOM to head toward land. We are not in that situation, so I would not suspect an upgrade unless more definitive data is collected.

And there you have it...Thanks Cycloneye

[alienstorm]

Expect an upgrade to a Depression soon.

[drezee]

Expect an upgrade to a Depression soon.

Possibly, but a vortex does not guarantee an upgrade. We had the same situation earlier this year.

[alienstorm]

Correct but based on 1001 reading and dropping it would be the right thing to do.

[cycloneye]

Now that we have a closed LLC the question becomes is there sufficient convection to upgrade.

[gatorcane]

Latest NASA image.

[wxman57]

Since we didn't have a recon plane in the disturbance before now, we can't identify the pressure trend. Earlier pressures were just satellite estimates. I don't think that the convection is organized enough for an upgrade, but the NHC may call it TD Nine shortly. Won't make a lot of difference whether or not they do, as it won't amount to much in the BoC before it moves ashore tomorrow night.

[gatorcane]

Wxman, will the NHC feed any of this data into the model runs and if so which runs will get the data, 00Z? The 1001MB seems quite a bit lower than what I have seen the global models showing for their initialization of this invest (more around the 1004-1006MB range)

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Wxman, will the NHC feed any of this data into the model runs and if so which runs will get the data, 00Z? The 1001MB seems quite a bit lower than what I have seen the global models showing for their initialization of this invest (more around the 1004-1006MB range)

I'm not sure what (if any) data will go into the 00Z model runs from this recon flight. The Euro seems to have initialized it in the right location, though about 5mb too high. Euro indicates a struggling weak low in the western Caribbean next Tuesday.