ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

It certainly has that "fisty" look we tend to associate with rapidly intensifying systems. Anyway, let's hope it just looks that way. At any rate, it's best to be prepared for the worst.

[ozonepete]

Yeah, it has that look. The northern islands should be preparing quickly now.

[fd122]

I hope it does not intensify. We don't need the damage here right now.The sea has definitively picked up a bit. Not much wind though (yet).

[gatorcane]

It does have that look but the GFS and ECMWF wait to really bomb this out until after it passes the Caribbean islands. Though as we know, models can be way off on intensity. Hope this is not one of those times they are!

[caribepr]

It certainly has that "fisty" look we tend to associate with rapidly intensifying systems. Anyway, let's hope it just looks that way. At any rate, it's best to be prepared for the worst.

I hope so It could happen anytime now and we'd be very happy about that!

[Hammy]

It does have that look but the GFS and ECMWF wait to really bomb this out until after it passes the Caribbean islands. Though as we know, models can be way off on intensity. Hope this is not one of those times they are!

I would say part of the reason that the models wait to intensify this is that they didn't initialize it very well, it's clearly stronger certainly than the 12z Euro had it. Best thing to do in the islands would to prepare for at minimum a Cat 1 hurricane, given the intensity forecast, and it would no longer surprise me to see that raised as well. HWRF may have called this correctly at the pace it's going...

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Anyone know of any radar images from the islands down there? Looks like this thing is forming an eye wall RIGHT NOW. Just ready to see this thing turn and head out to sea because it is going to be a MONSTER STORM.

[Hammy]

Anyone know of any radar images from the islands down there? Looks like this thing is forming an eye wall RIGHT NOW. Just ready to see this thing turn and head out to sea because it is going to be a MONSTER STORM.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC_ant.html
Certainly seems to be organizing further.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here's your primitive eye:





Definitely seems more of a mid-level feature.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Here's your primitive eye:





Definitely seems more of a mid-level feature.

Yeah the radar images that Hammy shared show it is not all the way down to the lower levels yet. It is getting there though and fast. Even the NHC shows that it is in a VERY CONDUCTIVE area for further strengthening.

[gatorcane]

Hi gang, I know Gonzalo is the main area of focus now but we may have something to watch in the SW Caribbean now too based on some disturbed weather that has developed and on the latest 18Z GFS and NAVGEM runs. I started a thread here. Getting active!

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116850

[SeGaBob]

I'm noticing the people that said this wouldn't form 24 hours ago have nothing to say... Look at pages 3 and 4.

[caribepr]

I'm noticing the people that said this wouldn't form 24 hours ago have nothing to say... Look at pages 3 and 4.

Nothing to be gained from that, it happens both ways on all possibles. Ram Dass said it best, Be Here Now.

[ozonepete]

I'm noticing the people that said this wouldn't form 24 hours ago have nothing to say... Look at pages 3 and 4.

Nothing to be gained from that, it happens both ways on all possibles. Ram Dass said it best, Be Here Now.

Yeah, go easy Bob. We all eat crow on here sooner or later.

[SeGaBob]

I'm noticing the people that said this wouldn't form 24 hours ago have nothing to say... Look at pages 3 and 4.

Nothing to be gained from that, it happens both ways on all possibles. Ram Dass said it best, Be Here Now.

True, I just felt the need to say it though because some think they know it all. In no way do I mean to seem rude but it just eats me up sometimes. I don't mean to get off topic though... this storm looks really good to me. I don't want this to be a hurricane in PR and surrounding areas.

[cycloneye]

Ok good. Let's move on as is a very important next hours for many in NE Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

This sentence opened my eyes.

Although occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air could briefly
disrupt the strengthening process, those occurrences should
generally be short-lived due to the strong instability conditions
that will be present. In fact, rapid intensification is a very
distinct possibility,

Surprising to think that 2 months ago Vertical Instability was seriously lacking in this region. Goes to show that things can change fast sometimes!

[MGC]

Gonzalo looks like trouble. The dry air to the north of the TS is having minimal negative effect. Looks like conditions are quite favorable for intensification to me. Hope the NHC is wrong with the RI talk but small systems can spin up quickly. As others have mentioned I'd be getting ready for a hurricane in the Virgin Islands and PR....perhaps a very strong one at that......MGC

[abajan]

For what it's worth, we're currently experiencing frequent thunder. Seems to be coming from a thunderstorm somewhere near the center of the island.

[knotimpaired]

Ok everyone, we get it. Our island is in the crux of this so sit back and just wait and see what happens.

Debate all you want and I appreciate that, but to us islanders, we appreciate the Pro Mets, otherwise we would turn on the Weather Channel.