WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#201 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 12:46 pm

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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#202 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 12:47 pm

Strongest Tropical Cyclone this year in any basin...No doubt...
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#203 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:12 pm

Looks like a Mini-Haiyan...That -80C convection now encircles the eye completely, just needs to spread out more...Eye very warm...
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#204 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:20 pm

2014OCT07 173200 7.5 898.6 155.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.20 -78.59 EYE 31 IR 93.7 17.81 -133.14 COMBO MTSAT2 24.9

155 knots!

Will JTWC follow Dvorak of 140 knots or ADT at 155 knots? or a blend right in between?
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#205 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:21 pm

T7.5/155kt from JTWC dvorak

TPPN10 PGTW 071740

A. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 07/1732Z

C. 17.6N

D. 133.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 17NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. PT YIELDS A 7.0. MET YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1254Z 17.4N 134.1E MMHS
07/1616Z 17.5N 133.4E GPMI


UEHARA
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#206 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:25 pm

supercane4867 wrote:T7.5/155kt from JTWC dvorak

TPPN10 PGTW 071740

A. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 07/1732Z

C. 17.6N

D. 133.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 17NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. PT YIELDS A 7.0. MET YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1254Z 17.4N 134.1E MMHS
07/1616Z 17.5N 133.4E GPMI


UEHARA


155 knots next warning? :double:
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#207 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:27 pm

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899 mb...
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#208 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:43 pm

Image

Very heavy rains in this latest TRMM...
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#209 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:49 pm

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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#210 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:01 pm

150kts at 18z Best Track.

19W VONGFONG 141007 1800 17.6N 133.2E WPAC 150 911
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#211 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:04 pm

I see nothing to support less than 150, although 155 or even 160 kt might be reasonable.
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#212 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:30 pm

Classic category 5 storm right there. Looks very good but scary!
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#213 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:48 pm

What about 155kts?

19W VONGFONG 141007 1800 17.6N 133.2E WPAC 155 907
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#214 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:19W VONGFONG 141007 1800 17.6N 133.2E WPAC 155 907

This should be as high as it can gets IMO
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#215 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:08 pm

Incredibly symmetric

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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#216 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:23 pm

JTWC 2100 UTC warning. Peak is at 165kts.

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#217 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:32 pm

I rarely visit the WPAC forums but this is one exception.

JUST WOW! Look at this monster. Unbelievable.
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#218 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:53 pm

We should be thankful this isn't about to make landfall at such intensity.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#219 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:57 pm

Agreed Crazy. Do you think it has peaked?

This very impressive image is a classic perfect cat 5. Credit to Dr Jeff Masters for image.

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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#220 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:Agreed Crazy. Do you think it has peaked?

This very impressive image is a classic perfect cat 5. Credit to Dr Jeff Masters for image.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/vo ... s-oct7.jpg


Hard to say but the CMG in the Dvorak image is a bit smaller, despite more CDG.
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