ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

This is worthy of being called a Hurricane in 2014. Impressed at Ed, and the Euro's performance on it. 4th Hurricane North of 20N.

[Ntxw]

With an eye now ADT is much more generous, on it's way to major status.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 25:04:17 N Lon : 51:27:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.0mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -21.6C Cloud Region Temp : -58.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.3 degrees

[cycloneye]

Let's see how many ACE units it gets after all is over.As of the 11 AM EDT advisory it has 3.0225 units.

[Ntxw]

Let's see how many ACE units it gets after all is over.As of the 11 AM EDT advisory it has 3.0225 units.

Given the history of storm's on a similar path projection and size/strength, I'd say anywhere from 10-15pts overall before it transitions to extratropical

[galaxy401]

This is worthy of being called a Hurricane in 2014. Impressed at Ed, and the Euro's performance on it. 4th Hurricane North of 20N.

It's very interesting that many hurricanes in the past few years have been thriving in the subtropics while storms forming in the tropics struggle.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Edouard is nearing Category 2 hurricane intensity. Recon measured 95kt flight-level winds, and a dropsonde northwest of the center recorded 79kt surface winds.

[CrazyC83]

Edouard is nearing Category 2 hurricane intensity. Recon measured 95kt flight-level winds, and a dropsonde northwest of the center recorded 79kt surface winds.

That would at least support 80 kt.

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF shows Edouard bombs out to a strong Cat.4

[abajan]

Surfers along the eastern shores from the Eastern Caribbean all the way to Canada must be licking their chops in anticipation of big swells!

[Hammy]

How long's it been since the Euro showed a Cat 4?

[CrazyC83]

I'd be a bit nervous in the Azores seeing that...

[SeGaBob]

I personally believe Category 4 is likely given the recent trends unless something comes out of nowhere and destroys it suddenly.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 52.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES




HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard has become better organized this afternoon. The eye of the
hurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, and
deep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensity
and coverage during the past few hours. NOAA hurricane hunters
investigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight-
level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. These data and
the consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC,
support raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt. Additional
strengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while the
hurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat.
The only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry air
that is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation.
Steady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when the
cyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass,
which will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur in
about 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity in
about two days followed by a steady decline after that.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered by
a subtropical ridge centered to its north. This ridge is expected
to weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard to
gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days. By
mid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
zonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east. The
NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next few
days, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 h.

The NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes into
and around the circulation of Edouard. These data will be useful in
analyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and should
help the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 25.4N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 29.3N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 31.2N 56.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 40.1N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 41.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[tolakram]

This is worthy of being called a Hurricane in 2014. Impressed at Ed, and the Euro's performance on it. 4th Hurricane North of 20N.

[im g]http://i60.tinypic.com/2eap4qp.gif[/img]

The euro dissipated ed until 2 days ago. What has been impressive about the euro's performance?

[tolakram]

Forget major, how long has it been since we had a hurricane that looked like a hurricane?

live vis loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=25&lon=-52&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=none

http://imageshack.com/a/img674/6400/OhXT2s.jpg

Beginning of July to be exact (Hurricane Arthur).

Am I remembering wrong? Arthur never looked like a classic cane.

[Ntxw]

This is worthy of being called a Hurricane in 2014. Impressed at Ed, and the Euro's performance on it. 4th Hurricane North of 20N.

[im g]http://i60.tinypic.com/2eap4qp.gif[/img]

The euro dissipated ed until 2 days ago. What has been impressive about the euro's performance?

I think you misread my post. I was referencing how good Ed is and what the Euro is showing of it becoming a major. Not what the euro did with it.

[TheStormExpert]

Forget major, how long has it been since we had a hurricane that looked like a hurricane?

live vis loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=25&lon=-52&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=none

http://imageshack.com/a/img674/6400/OhXT2s.jpg

Beginning of July to be exact (Hurricane Arthur).

Am I remembering wrong? Arthur never looked like a classic cane.

How? It was pretty good looking to me for a early season minimal Cat.2 hurricane riding up the east coast.

[Ntxw]

ADT putting it very close to major

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 25:28:21 N Lon : 52:00:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 969.0mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -59.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.2 degrees

[tolakram]

This is worthy of being called a Hurricane in 2014. Impressed at Ed, and the Euro's performance on it. 4th Hurricane North of 20N.

[im g]http://i60.tinypic.com/2eap4qp.gif[/img]

The euro dissipated ed until 2 days ago. What has been impressive about the euro's performance?

I think you misread my post. I was referencing how good Ed is and what the Euro is showing of it becoming a major. Not what the euro did with it.

Right, yea, I had that backwards.

[Hammy]

There are two planes on the recon data, one that went to Saint Croix and one that went to Bermuda: Are these for Edouard and does anybody know when they'll be flown?