WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

Yeah, definitely dry air issue going on... but hey, it will be spending a lot more hours over very warm SST's. I never expected this to be another Haiyan, structure-wise, because Haiyan was more compact and had a very solid core. Having a cyclone like Haiyan or Tip is like once in thirty years event...

[stormcruisin]

Thinking here its now tapping into the moisture from the SW monsoon the dry air it was venting now looks resolved on the long loop.

[cycloneye]

Discussion by JTWC of 0300z warning.

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SUSTAINED SUPER
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SYMMETRIC 35-NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS
PROVIDING A HIGHLY EFFICIENT RADIAL OUTFLOW MECHANISM. ADDITIONALLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) AS TY 08W
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SERIES OF TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE LOWS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. TY 08W WILL INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IN ADDITION TO
WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). BEYOND TAU 48,
COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN, AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO RECEDE. THE
INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. HOWEVER, TY 08W WILL
REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN.
AROUND TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE
POINT. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[stormcruisin]

almost complete again.




you can see it now tapping into the MT to the west..

[cycloneye]

In Okinawa they are taking this very seriously.This is a message that the commander of the Kadena base in Okinawa posted on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase? ... 9122491916

A message from our commander:

Shoguns,

I can't stress enough how dangerous this typhoon may be when it hits Okinawa. This is the most powerful typhoon forecast to hit the island in 15 years; we expect damaging winds to arrive by early Tuesday morning.

So be prepared! Take the time today and tomorrow to secure your outdoor items, and get the supplies you need to weather this storm. Tie down your outdoor items and work with your neighbors to help them--especially those whose spouses are deployed/TDY/TAD.

During the typhoon, do not go outside. Right now, we expect sustained winds of 155 miles per hour and gusts up to 190 mph. Anything not tied down, even smaller items, could become deadly projectiles.

This is not just another typhoon. If we all follow the typhoon procedures and take care of each other, we will all make it through this typhoon safely.

Brig Gen James Hecker
18th Wing Commander

[stormcruisin]

Appears to be still expanding in size.

[dexterlabio]

Thinking here its now tapping into the moisture from the SW monsoon the dry air it was venting now looks resolved on the long loop.

yeah the moist SW monsoon will help Neoguri deal with dry air. lot of moisture being tapped by Neoguri's outer bands from the west....

[stormcruisin]

looks totally closed off again interesting next period coming up now as to what it does next.

[stormcruisin]

Thinking here its now tapping into the moisture from the SW monsoon the dry air it was venting now looks resolved on the long loop.

yeah the moist SW monsoon will help Neoguri deal with dry air. lot of moisture being tapped by Neoguri's outer bands from the west....

Biggest problem this is facing i think it the rate of expansion having to constantly deal with equalizing the systems pressures.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe a super typhoon later today. Very impressive structure, and it was able to survive the dry air but was fueled by low shear and very very warm ocean temperatures. It is just that the intensification is kinda slowed down.

[dexterlabio]

basing on streamline analysis, this should turn poleward soon...

[Yellow Evan]

Loos much better now. I'd say this 135-140 knts 1 min or around 120 knts 10-min.

[euro6208]

The most shocking thing about this storm is that it is forecast to be at 145 knots, WHILE it is July, not even that, it is the beginning of July!

Category 5 typhoons can happen this early...

Since 2000...Cat 5's before August...

Super Typhoon Damrey of 2000 peaking at 155 knots in May
Super Typhoon Mitag in 2002 of March, 140 knots
Super Typhoon Hagibis, 2002 of May, 140 knots
Super Typhoon Fengshen, 2002 of July, 145 knots
Super Typhoon Nida, May of 2004, 140 knots
Super Typhoon Dianmu, June of 2004, 155 knots
Super Typhoon Haitang, July of 2005, 140 knots
Super Typhoon Songda, May of 2011, 140 knots

[euro6208]

GFS deepen Neoguri to 922 mb east of Taiwan



Has one of the largest wind fields...

[mrbagyo]

The "Haiyan chasers" are getting in front of this one. Wow


https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone?fref=nf

[euro6208]

Much better organized and eye more well defined.

There is a hot tower in the eyewall.

A sign of strengthening...

[mrbagyo]

Convection looks thin, not surprised though since tropopause is lower at higher latitudes.

[stormcruisin]

It's rapidly weakening flagged atm.

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules---
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd
2014JUL06 073200 6.2 934.8 119.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 NO LIMIT ON ON

[stormcruisin]

Thinking here its peaked.

[stormcruisin]

30 knot shear got to it.