ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Convection is weakening and moving away from the LLC pretty quickly. It's looking doubtful with this that the recon will go out tomorrow, and another day after that given the motion and it will probably be onshore.

Hi Hammy!
It's a long way til tomorrow, lol. And there's no indication of much westward motion at all right now either at mid or low levels. the only way it goes over Florida is if it doesn't deepen: stay tuned.

[TheStormExpert]

Still dropping south - more than I thought it would.

indeed..could be at sfl latitude if it keeps droping. In terms of models system not well established to get a good handle on it.

dont be fooled but the convection out running the circ.. its east of daytona.

Yep it's well East of Daytona Bach, FL. With the Anti-Cyclone a little ways to the SW just north of Grand Bahama.

[Alyono]

A stronger system would head further south as the deeper layer mean has more of a southerly component

The developments tonight have me questioning my forecast of development. Would have liked to have seen some organization this evening. Perhaps the GFS/CMC will get one right

[cycloneye]

For those who may not know,there will not be a recon mission as planned for the morning hours.That mission was moved to the afternoon.Learn more at the Recon Thread.

[TheStormExpert]

This has actually become less organized throughout the day

As I said yesterday, conditions were hostile and they likely will remain hostile for 24 more hours

At the 2pm TWO the NHC mentioned conditions would not improve until late Tuesday, now as of 8pm they mention them improving within the next few days.

[ozonepete]

It's when it stalls out that things will get interesting. That isn't far off.

[TheStormExpert]

It's when it stalls out that things will get interesting. That isn't far off.

When is it supposed to stall? None of the models that I know of and seen show it stalling, they only show it meandering around for a few days before heading NE out to sea.

[Aric Dunn]

Things woll begin to improve tonight through monday but not be u deal til Tuesday.

[ozonepete]

It's when it stalls out that things will get interesting. That isn't far off.

When is it supposed to stall? None of the models that I know of and seen show it stalling, they only show it meandering around for a few days before heading NE out to sea.

Meandering is stalling. Both mean no direction. A TC that meanders around a small, limited-in-size area is basically the same as stalled when talking about TCs.

[Sanibel]

I was going to post last night that it's feeling awfully tropical around here but forgot. Now I check out the site and see this. Sometimes your senses are the best barometer.

[SFLcane]

Ouch! exposed llc here heading W.

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone else have the feeling that this will be another bust invest like 90L, or is it just my gut feeling?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not sure why people are so quick to call this one off. Even the ECMWF, which eventually makes this a hurricane, showed/shows little intensification over the next day. The environment will be most conducive for strengthening, maybe quick strengthening, as the storm heads northeast.

[Alyono]

Does anyone else have the feeling that this will be another bust invest like 90L, or is it just my gut feeling?

The thing is, most models have NOT developed this. The only onse to are SHIPS, which is not designed for systems that are not depressions, the HWRF, which is useless, and the EC, which always overdevelops everything in the subtropics

[ozonepete]

Does anyone else have the feeling that this will be another bust invest like 90L, or is it just my gut feeling?

It's just your gut feeling.

[SFLcane]

woah..

[ozonepete]

Does anyone else have the feeling that this will be another bust invest like 90L, or is it just my gut feeling?

The thing is, most models have NOT developed this. The only onse to are SHIPS, which is not designed for systems that are not depressions, the HWRF, which is useless, and the EC, which always overdevelops everything in the subtropics

So what is this?

[Alyono]

That is HWRF and SHIPS based models intensifying this. Explained earlier why those are not valid

Now, the 0Z GFS IS developing this, but not until late in the week and it does not appear to entirely be tropical (enough so to get a name, however)

[ozonepete]

That is HWRF and SHIPS based models intensifying this. Explained earlier why those are not valid

Now, the 0Z GFS IS developing this, but not until late in the week and it does not appear to entirely be tropical (enough so to get a name, however)

It's not just HWRF and SHIPS, it's others including GFDL and AVN on there as well...

[Aric Dunn]

That is HWRF and SHIPS based models intensifying this. Explained earlier why those are not valid

Now, the 0Z GFS IS developing this, but not until late in the week and it does not appear to entirely be tropical (enough so to get a name, however)

It's not just HWRF and SHIPS, it's others including GFDL and AVN on there as well...

Not only that. We all know that models are terrible at cyclogenisis in short term.. they can do very well in a general sense over time but can't say hey this hour it looks terrible the next hour it looks better then recon go out or so some other obs say hey we have depression or storm... too many people rely on models that are inherently flaud with cyclogenisis. Thats why the nhc does a series of short term updates a forecast .. once a system is established the models do overall quite well with large scale synoptic progression. Until its established the models are not going to get it right only give you general sense of direction... even though the hwrf and gfdl are technically intensity models they stl do not do well with cyclogenisis and thus are mute at this point. Only a little knowledge and direct observations will better the short term forecasts. Always.