EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2014MAY25 010000 4.6 980.6 79.6

no shape or form is that 100 knots

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, Microwave imagery continues to improve:

Call a spade a spade its still a 70 knot system the ring is incomplete

01E AMANDA 140524 1800 11.3N 110.1W EPAC 70 987

4.5 979 mb

A rapidly clearing eye with deep convection surrounding it does not support 70 knots. The intensity estimate from SAB is 102 knots and the values from CIMSS ADT are rapidly rising, with the Adjusted value also at 102 knots. This is at least a 90kt cyclone, and that may be conservative. It looks better than several other systems declared to be 100kt.

[cycloneye]

stormkite that is the 18z data that JTWC has not updated. The 00z is at 85kts.

[Kingarabian]

2014MAY25 010000 4.6 980.6 79.6

no shape or form is that 100 knots

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, Microwave imagery continues to improve:

[img]

Call a spade a spade its still a 70 knot system the ring is incomplete

01E AMANDA 140524 1800 11.3N 110.1W EPAC 70 987

I have to disagree completely. The eyewall is 90% complete, and microwave imagery clearly depicts a very intense eyewall. Your theory of it being 70kts can't hold true because as soon as the eye clears, it will most likely be a major hurricane... So that would mean a 30kt jump in wind speed... 85kts is more realistic, although that maybe a bit conservative.


Once (and of course IF) the eyewall becomes completes, the eye usually clears out and we will very likely have a major hurricane. Which is why the ADT numbers are so high right now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

01:30 UTC image.

[Kingarabian]

Just look at that:



This is NOT a 70kt storm.


ADT as usual, spot on!

[Kingarabian]

stormkite that is the 18z data that JTWC has not updated. The 00z is at 85kts.

Wow.

[Kingarabian]

[hurricanes1234]

Amazing!!! I am thinking 105 mph at least for the next update, but this really looks like a major hurricane (I'm not saying it is). If not, then I'd say it's 110 mph.

[stormkite]

Agree now yeah looks EXCELLENT on the way to c4

[Yellow Evan]

Amanda looks even more impressive than when I left. This is remarkable. It looks like 95-100 knts to me.

[Ntxw]

And to think where she was a little over 24 hours ago. Ah yes, the EPAC should be an effortless year to get these things going.

[Kingarabian]

Props to the Euro for predicting it so far out. Intensity models such as the GFDL and the HWRF have also been spot on.

[Yellow Evan]

Props to the Euro for predicting it so far out. Intensity models such as the GFDL and the HWRF have also been spot on.

It was the GFS that was the only model that predicted this creature.

[Kingarabian]

Props to the Euro for predicting it so far out. Intensity models such as the GFDL and the HWRF have also been spot on.

It was the GFS that was the only model that predicted this creature.

Let me clarify a bit more:

Euro first showed something forming and going out into the East.

GFS then showed the same storm but intensified it.

GFS drops it and showed nothing but a weak storm and (continued to do so up until it became a depression).

Euro showed a nice hurricane.

[tolakram]

Last usable visible from earlier, 01:00Z

[Yellow Evan]

Props to the Euro for predicting it so far out. Intensity models such as the GFDL and the HWRF have also been spot on.

It was the GFS that was the only model that predicted this creature.

Let me clarify a bit more:

Euro first showed something forming and going out into the East.

GFS then showed the same storm but intensified it.

GFS drops it and showed nothing but a weak storm and (continued to do so up until it became a depression).

Euro showed a nice hurricane.

Fine, I guess it's a win for the Euro as well.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Major hurricane!

[Kingarabian]

Fine, I guess it's a win for the Euro as well.

Yeah. Which is why I love EPAC storms. Usually they are nice and beautiful, and they usually do not affect anyone. They allow us to improve our science and further our knowledge.

[euro6208]

Who would have thought that the most impressive looking and strongest hurricane so far for the Northern Hemisphere is not in the WPAC but the EPAC in a pre el nino season

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it is up to 100 knots. In the BT, Bud's record is tied if you count EPAC proper only.